A revolutionary open-source flood model called SFINCS, developed by PhD researcher Tim Leijnse of Deltares and VU Amsterdam, is transforming how we predict and prepare for coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones and extreme storms.
A Faster, Smarter Way to Predict Coastal Flooding
Tropical cyclones rising sea levels, and extreme rainfall have already impacted hundreds of millions in coastal communities across the globe. To safeguard lives and livelihoods, it’s no longer enough to track just one factor like storm surges. Instead, experts must understand the complex interaction of waves, rain, and river flows all of which can combine into dangerous compound floods.
That’s where SFINCS (Super-Fast INundation of CoastS) comes in.
Developed by Tim Leijnse, who receives his PhD today, the model is designed to predict large-scale, compound flood risks quickly and with high accuracy a task that typically takes traditional models far longer and demands massive computing resources.
What Makes SFINCS Different?
Open-source & accessible: Designed to be usable by governments and disaster planners worldwide.
Efficient but accurate: Strips down unnecessary complexity while still capturing essential coastal and hydrological processes.
Dynamic wave modeling: Uniquely includes wave action in flood forecasts a key driver of water level increases during storms.
Large-area simulation: Unlike older models that handle small zones, SFINCS can cover 1,000 km of coastline in a short time.
Case Study: Hurricane Florence (2018)
To test its capability, researchers applied SFINCS to Hurricane Florence, which battered the U.S. East Coast in 2018. The model delivered accurate predictions of coastal flooding quickly and over a vast stretch of coastline, proving its value for real-time disaster response.
Better Tools, Better Protection
Leijnse’s work, published in the study Riding the wave: Enabling large-scale wave-resolving probabilistic coastal compound flood modeling,” marks a major leap in climate resilience tools. This research provides a foundation for faster warnings, smarter evacuation planning, and stronger defenses for people living near the sea.
Governments, disaster agencies, and coastal engineers can now model compound floods with speed and precision especially in cyclone-prone regions like the Bay of Bengal, where accurate wave and surge forecasts are critical.
As climate change intensifies storms and sea-level rise, models like SFINCS offer hope and preparedness for the future.