In a groundbreaking study, scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have exposed significant overestimations in climate models predicting permafrost loss in High Mountain Asia (HMA). Known for its vast frozen carbon reserves, HMA has been at the center of global climate concerns. However, the latest research reveals that by fine-tuning model sensitivity to align with realistic warming projections, the feared permafrost degradation may be significantly less severe than previously believed.
The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, finds that previous climate models with overly high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) levels have led to exaggerated warming predictions, distorting forecasts for permafrost loss across HMA. With new projections adjusted to more accurate ECS values, researchers predict a 37% to 64% permafrost loss by 2100 under moderate emissions scenarios, a notable reduction from prior estimates. However, the study warns that HMA remains vulnerable under high-emission scenarios, where severe warming could still cause near-total permafrost loss by the century’s end.
Dr. Jiang Jie, the lead author, emphasized that “accurate warming projections will provide better insights into permafrost preservation, not only for HMA but other critical frozen landscapes.” This pivotal study is a wake-up call for policymakers, demonstrating the urgent need for climate models based on realistic warming scenarios to guide global climate action.