An international team of researchers from NTU Singapore and Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) in the Netherlands has projected a significant rise in global sea levels if carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase. According to their findings, published in the scientific journal Earth’s Future, sea levels could rise between 0.5 and 1.9 meters by the year 2100 under a high-emission scenario. The upper limit of this range is nearly 90 centimeters higher than the latest United Nations (UN) projection, which estimates a rise of 0.6 to 1.0 meters.
This study provides a “very likely range” (indicating a 90% probability of occurrence), offering a new dimension to sea-level projections. Previously, projections from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on a “likely range” (66% probability), leaving gaps in risk assessment for extreme scenarios.
Current sea-level projections rely on diverse methods that model climate processes, ranging from well-understood phenomena like glacier melting to more uncertain events such as abrupt ice shelf collapse. These varying approaches have led to inconsistent estimates, creating challenges in preparing for worst-case scenarios.
To address these uncertainties, the NTU-led research team developed a new projection method known as the “fusion” approach. This innovative method combines insights from existing models with expert opinions to produce more comprehensive and reliable estimates. The team believes this approach addresses critical gaps in current sea-level rise predictions and complements the latest IPCC report.
The findings underscore the urgency of mitigating global carbon emissions to prevent catastrophic sea-level rise. The researchers highlight the need for enhanced climate policies and risk management strategies, as the high end of their projection would have profound implications for coastal communities worldwide.