U.S. meteorologists are warning of a potentially busy Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicting 13 to 19 named storms 6 to 10 of which could intensify into hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through November 30.
This above-normal forecast is based on two critical climate indicators: warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the current neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These conditions tip the scales toward a more active season though experts stress that forecasting does not equate to guarantees.
Warmer Waters and ENSO Fuel Storm Formation
Hurricanes feed off warm ocean waters, and current sea surface temperatures are above the 30-year average though not quite at record-breaking levels. ENSO, which oscillates between El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases, also plays a key role. In a neutral phase, upper-level winds neither strongly suppress nor favor storm development, meaning the atmosphere isn’t actively working against hurricanes but it’s not clearing the path either.
During La Niña years, reduced wind shear encourages hurricane development, which is why seasons like 2020–2023 were especially active. In contrast, El Niño years often produce fewer storms due to strong upper-level winds disrupting storm systems.
What Forecasters Watch as the Season Unfolds
Once the season begins, meteorologists closely monitor short-term influences that shape storm development on a week-to-week basis:
- Saharan Dust: Blown across the Atlantic, it can suppress storm formation by drying the atmosphere and dimming ocean sunlight.
- African Easterly Waves: Thunderstorm clusters off West Africa that often develop into major hurricanes in peak season (August–September).
- Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO): A pulse of tropical atmospheric activity that enhances or suppresses storm development depending on its phase and location.
- Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico: A deep stream of warm water that can dramatically intensify storms, as seen with Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Ida (2021).
Storm Paths Shift Through the Season
Early in the season, storm development is more likely in the Gulf of Mexico especially threatening the Texas coast, Louisiana, and Florida Panhandle. By late summer, storms tend to form farther east in the Atlantic, often from long-traveling systems near the Cape Verde Islands off Africa. These can become powerful hurricanes that threaten the Caribbean and southeastern U.S.
As fall approaches, storm activity shifts closer to the U.S. mainland, often originating in the western Atlantic or Caribbean. These late-season storms can take erratic paths, like Superstorm Sandy in 2012 or Hurricane Milton in 2024.
A Seasonal Warning: One Storm Is All It Takes
While an active forecast raises red flags, the real danger lies in underestimating the impact of a single powerful storm. It only takes one hurricane to make it a dangerous and unforgettable. Communities along the coast are urged to stay alert, update emergency plans, and follow official weather advisories closely.
As the 2025 hurricane season begins, the message from forecasters is clear: prepare early, stay informed, and never let your guard down.