The Panama Canal, a vital 82-kilometer shipping artery connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, has long been a key player in global trade. As much as 5% of the world’s shipping relies on the canal, making it essential for supply chains. However, recent years have highlighted a growing concern: climate-driven water shortages.
Since its opening in 1914, the canal has operated through a system of locks, raising ships about 25 meters to cross Gatun Lake before lowering them again. The lake, fed by rainfall, is critical to ensuring smooth passage for massive Neopanamax vessels carrying over 13,000 cargo containers. Each day, about 7 billion liters of water are extracted from the lake to operate the locks, making consistent rainfall essential.
Panama’s typically high annual rainfall over 2,000 millimeters has helped sustain the canal. However, in the past three decades, there have been three dry years (1998, 2016, and 2024) with rainfall below 1,750 millimeters. Steve Paton, director of the Physical Monitoring Program at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama City, noted that this clustering of dry years is unprecedented in the canal’s 144-year rainfall record.
In 2024, low water levels in Gatun Lake forced the Panama Canal Authority to cut the number of ships passing through from 14,080 in 2023 to just 11,240. The authority also restricted ships’ maximum draft, meaning vessels had to reduce cargo loads, causing delays and longer queues.
El Niño, a climate cycle that reduces rainfall in Central America, played a significant role in all three dry years. However, while climate change isn’t yet proven to increase the frequency of El Niño events, it is intensifying storms. Michael McPhaden, a physical oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, explained that storm intensity has risen by about 10%, with another 10% increase projected over the next century.
Excess rainfall also poses risks. In 2010, record rains nearly caused Gatun Lake to overtop an earthen dam, prompting emergency measures to siphon water and prevent catastrophic erosion.
Efforts to better understand the canal’s hydrology are underway, including the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute’s Agua Salud Project, which studies how forest cover helps regulate water levels by absorbing and releasing rain. Maintaining forest cover is seen as crucial for ensuring stable lake levels.
Despite the challenges of recent years, 2025 brings renewed hope for Panama Canal operations. Current water levels in Gatun Lake are the highest they’ve been in five years, setting the stage for smoother and more efficient ship traffic in the months ahead.
https://www.preventionweb.net/news/panama-canal-logistics-are-mercy-weather-and-climate