Despite the increasing intensity and frequency of climate-related disasters such as cyclones, floods, and droughts, global deaths from these catastrophes are decreasing thanks to improved warning systems, planning, and resilience measures, according to Kamal Kishore, the new United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for disaster risk reduction.
Kishore highlights a significant shift in disaster outcomes: “Twenty years ago, there was no tsunami early warning system except for one small part of the world. Now the whole world is covered by a tsunami warning system.” This improvement has drastically reduced fatalities from tsunamis since the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which claimed approximately 230,000 lives. Similarly, early warnings for tropical cyclones have significantly decreased death rates in vulnerable regions such as the Philippines and India.
India’s Success Story
India exemplifies this progress. Kishore notes that in 1999, a supercyclone killed nearly 10,000 people in eastern India, whereas a similar storm in 2013 resulted in only a few dozen deaths. Last year, Cyclone Biparjoy caused fewer than 10 deaths. These successes are attributed to better warnings, community preparedness, and proactive measures like hospitals preparing for a surge in births during cyclones.
Disaster epidemiologist Debarati Guha-Sapir of the Catholic University of Louvain supports Kishore’s observations with data. Her global disaster database indicates a drop in average deaths per storm event from 24 in 2008 to 8 in 2021, and flood deaths per event from 72 to 31. However, Guha-Sapir notes that this progress is uneven, with poorer regions, particularly in Africa, not experiencing similar improvements.
Socio-Economic Factors
Kishore and Guha-Sapir agree that increased resilience is partly due to socio-economic advancements. Wealthier, better-educated countries like India and Bangladesh have invested in robust disaster management systems, which poorer countries cannot afford.
Despite fewer fatalities, Kishore emphasizes that climate change continues to complicate disaster management. He warns that new geographies, such as Brazil and areas previously unaffected by extreme heat, now face significant climate-related threats. For instance, Europe experienced nearly 60,000 heatwave deaths in 2022. Kishore calls for doubling efforts globally to adapt to these new extremes, including revising the built environments of cities to better withstand high temperatures.
Livelihoods at Risk
While lives are increasingly being saved, Kishore points out that livelihoods remain highly vulnerable. Disasters devastate homes, businesses, and small farms, leaving survivors without essential resources like seeds or fishing boats. “We are doing a better job of saving lives but not of livelihoods,” he states, underscoring the need to minimize economic losses alongside human casualties.
In conclusion, while significant progress has been made in reducing fatalities from climate-related disasters, ongoing efforts are crucial to address the broader impacts on livelihoods and adapt to the increasing severity and frequency of these events due to climate change.