Scientists warn that climate change is accelerating so rapidly that La Niña natural cooling current may lose its effectiveness in the future. As temperatures continue to rise India is already experiencing prolonged heat waves with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting an early summer and record-breaking temperatures this year.
IMD data reveals that February 2025 was the warmest since 1901, while rainfall levels were among the lowest in over two decades. Experts point to climate change as the driving force behind increasingly warmer winters and shorter springs a shift that is becoming the “new normal.”
Raghu Murtugudde an Earth system scientist at IIT Bombay noted that shifting jet streams strong winds in the upper atmosphere are directly influencing heatwave patterns. Arpita Mandal a climate scientist at IIT Bombay, highlighted that the northward shift of these winds before the monsoon season is contributing to more intense and prolonged heatwaves.
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events also play a key role in these climate patterns. While El Niño leads to warmer conditions, La Niña typically brings cooler temperatures. However, a recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report suggests that the weak La Niña expected in late 2024 may be short-lived, failing to provide significant relief from extreme heat.
Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that global temperatures between March 2024 and February 2025 were 1.59°C above pre-industrial levels, with ocean temperatures remaining abnormally high. Murtugudde warned that this persistent warming trend could weaken La Niña’s cooling effects, making future El Niño events even more extreme.
IMD records indicate that 2024 saw the highest number of heatwave days in 14 years with northwest India experiencing its hottest June since 1901. Given these trends experts caution that even neutral ENSO conditions may no longer offer respite, as climate change continues to intensify global temperatures.