A team of researchers has issued a striking forecast: Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located 300 miles off the coast of Oregon, is primed for an eruption by the end of 2025. This prediction has made waves in the scientific community, as it brings humanity closer to understanding and forecasting submarine volcanic activity.
Axial Seamount, situated along the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the northeast Pacific, is the region’s most active submarine volcano. Its frequent activity has made it a prime site for research, housing the world’s first underwater volcano observatory since 1997. Over the years, scientists have meticulously studied its behavior, uncovering patterns that hint at impending eruptions.
Key to predicting Axial’s eruptions is the inflation of its surface, caused by magma accumulation beneath the volcano. Researchers Bill Chadwick and Scott Nooner, who have been monitoring Axial for years, observed a dramatic increase in the rate of this inflation starting in late 2023.
Between fall 2023 and January 2024, the seafloor swelling rate doubled from 2-4 inches per year to a peak of 6 inches per year by July. By late 2024, the caldera’s inflation surpassed the levels recorded just before Axial’s last eruption in 2015.
Simultaneously, seismic activity around the volcano surged, with some days registering over 500 small earthquakes another hallmark of an impending eruption. These findings suggest that Axial Seamount has reached a critical point of “re-inflation,” mirroring the pre-eruption conditions observed in the past.
Based on current trends, Chadwick and Nooner predict that Axial Seamount is likely to erupt within the next 12 months. “The patterns we’re seeing align with what we observed in 2015,” they explained during a recent conference presentation. “If this trend holds, we expect an eruption window extending through the end of 2025.”
Unlike terrestrial volcanoes, submarine eruptions often occur without immediate warning and are challenging to study. Axial’s frequent activity provides scientists with a unique laboratory to observe these phenomena in real-time.
Every eruption at Axial offers valuable insights into how magma movement, pressure buildup, and seismic activity interconnect. These findings not only improve forecasting models for underwater volcanoes but also enhance understanding of similar processes in terrestrial volcanoes, potentially saving lives and minimizing infrastructure damage.
While accurately predicting eruptions remains an elusive goal, the research at Axial Seamount represents a significant step forward. Scientists believe that with continued monitoring and advancements in technology, forecasting volcanic eruptions with greater precision is within reach.
For now, all eyes are on Axial as researchers brace for what could be a defining moment in the study of submarine volcanism. The ocean, it seems, still holds many secrets but Axial Seamount may soon reveal one of its most powerful.