A new study led by the University of Bristol has highlighted how Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which contribute the least to climate change, are already facing severe and escalating flood risks. The research reveals that nearly 20% of people living in these islands about 8.5 million are now exposed to coastal and inland flooding. For nations like the Bahamas, Guyana, and Tuvalu, this figure skyrockets, affecting over 60% of their populations.
The study, published with data from Fathom’s Global Flood Map and worldwide population databases, marks the first comprehensive assessment of flood risks across all 57 SIDS. These islands, spread across the Pacific, Caribbean, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea, are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and severe weather due to their coastal populations and small land areas. According to Leanne Archer, lead author and researcher at the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute, “Flooding is now an alarming real-world threat for so many people globally. This study demonstrates that the often-overlooked Small Island Developing States are already subject to a disproportionate level of flood exposure, despite contributing the least to climate change.”
This issue, previously underestimated due to a lack of focus on inland flooding, now reveals inland flooding accounts for an overwhelming 81% of flood exposure in these regions. Even in a minimal warming scenario of 1.5°C, more than one in five SIDS residents could face flood exposure by 2100, with this figure potentially reaching nearly a quarter if warming exceeds 4°C.
Professor Paul Bates, co-author and hydrology expert, calls this study “a timely warning” that underscores the urgency for global leaders to back carbon reduction commitments with real action. The study sheds light on the unequal burden of climate change, showing that SIDS bear a disproportionate impact despite contributing the least to greenhouse gas emissions.