Bangladesh may face a dramatically different future due to climate change as destructive storm tides a combination of high tides and storm surges are projected to become 10 times more frequent warns a new study published in One Earth.
What was once considered a once-in-a-century event could soon strike every decade posing grave risks to Bangladesh’s low-lying, densely populated coast home to nearly eight million people.
The study led by researchers including Sai Ravela of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) found that under high-emissions scenarios the intensification of storms and rising sea levels could significantly increase the frequency and impact of coastal flooding even if the number of cyclones does not rise dramatically.
Historically the Bay of Bengal has witnessed six tropical cyclones that each claimed over 140,000 lives primarily due to massive flooding. Now climate change could further amplify these dangers, especially with the growing overlap of cyclones and monsoons by the end of this century. Typically occurring in separate seasons, changing climate patterns may now blur these boundaries, intensifying flood risks.
Ravela emphasized that the study fills a critical gap in storm tide forecasting, using simulations of thousands of potential cyclones under various climate scenarios to evaluate flood frequencies. These findings are crucial for developing resilient infrastructure and adaptation plans yet such risk assessments have long been missing in national strategies.
Adding to the threat is the increasing potential for compound flood events where cyclones strike during an already saturated monsoon season raising the danger of widespread disasters. “This emerging ‘shoulder season’ could see both systems combining their destructive power,” Ravela warned.
The research team now aims to translate these findings into actionable tools to support planners local communities and disaster management efforts in preparing for a more volatile coastal future.