A new study predicts that nearly 75% of the global population will face extreme weather events in the next two decades unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced. Led by climate scientists from the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO) in Norway, the research warns that even in the best-case scenario, 1.5 billion people will experience rapid and dangerous changes in weather patterns.
Physicist Bjørn Samset from CICERO stresses that these extreme events, such as intense heatwaves, floods, and storms, are already locked in due to the current state of the climate. Samset explains, “The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events, already in the next one to two decades.”
Recent climate data already shows the severity of the situation, with 2024 recording the hottest summer in the Northern Hemisphere and a record-breaking warm winter in the Southern Hemisphere. These rising global temperatures have led to devastating natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, and droughts, which have disrupted food production and exacerbated the spread of diseases.
The study, published in Nature Geoscience, indicates that tropical and subtropical regions, where most of the world’s population lives, will be the hardest hit. Multiple hazards, such as heatwaves and intense precipitation, could occur simultaneously, leading to cascading impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, and public health. For example, dry lightning and drought conditions have already led to more frequent and severe wildfires.
CICERO climate scientist Carley Iles and her colleagues emphasize that even with immediate emissions cuts, many regions will face accelerated changes. The rapid reduction of air pollution, particularly in Asia, could combine with global warming to produce extreme weather patterns.
The research underscores the urgency of both mitigating climate change and adapting to the unavoidable changes over the next 20 years.
Reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01511-4