Which Hurricane Models Can You Trust in 2025?
When a hurricane is brewing in the ocean, where do you turn for the most accurate forecast? With so many computer models out there especially two brand-new ones introduced just last year it can get confusing. But experts still say: trust the National Hurricane Center (NHC) first. Their track forecasts are the most reliable.
In the 2024 hurricane season, which was very active, NHC broke accuracy records. Their storm path predictions up to five days in advance beat all other models, nearly every time. Even the best individual models couldn’t outperform NHC or its top three “consensus” models (which are created by blending forecasts from multiple models).
The Most Trusted Track Models in 2024
European Model (ECMWF) and GFS Model (USA): These two were the top performers. GFS was b...