A new study published in Nature Food warns that more than half of the world’s cropland could see a decline in suitable crops if global temperatures rise by 2°C. Researchers examined how climate change would affect 30 major crops under four warming scenarios, from 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial levels.
The study finds that even at 1.5°C of warming, over half of the analyzed crops including wheat, barley, lentils, and potatoes would experience a net loss in potential cropland. At 3°C, all 30 crops would suffer declining suitable areas, with some reductions surpassing 50%. While warming will shrink crop diversity in tropical regions it may allow for expanded farming options in temperate zones offering adaptation opportunities.
Regions near the equator such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, face the steepest declines with potential crop diversity decreasing on more than 70% of their cropland beyond 2°C warming. Meanwhile North America, Europe, and Central Asia could see increased or stable crop diversity under warming scenarios up to 3°C.
Experts outside the study emphasize the importance of broadening research beyond staple crops to fully understand climate change impact on agriculture. Dr. José Clavijo Michelangeli, from Praedictus Climate Solutions, highlights that while findings align with previous studies, the data may not fully capture real-world crop responses to temperature changes.
Dr. Dale Rankine climate scientist at the University of the West Indies cautions against focusing future food production in temperate regions at the expense of tropical agriculture. He warns that relying too heavily on temperate zones could lead to global food shortages if extreme weather disrupts production.
The study underscores the urgency of limiting warming to 2°C to prevent devastating losses in food production, particularly in vulnerable tropical nations. Lead author Sara Heikonen from Aalto University stresses the need for international collaboration to help these regions adapt stating, “Developing new agricultural practices will be critical to securing food supply in difficult conditions.”