When a wildfire evacuation alert flashes on your phone, panic can set in. You might not see smoke, but the message tells you to grab your “go bag” and leave. As you scramble to gather documents, medications, and essentials, another message arrives this time urging immediate evacuation.
Outside, chaos unfolds. Some neighbors are still packing, while others hesitate, unsure of what to do. Traffic clogs the streets, and a plume of black smoke rises in the distance. This frantic scenario highlights a major challenge in disaster evacuations: they often take much longer than people expect, increasing risks for evacuees and emergency responders.
Researchers are now turning to computer simulations to predict where evacuation delays will occur and how to prevent them.
Confusion and delays in evacuating can have deadly consequences. A study of survivors from the 2009 Black Saturday wildfires in Australia, which killed 172 people, found that those who had a disaster plan were far more likely to survive. Many who died either had no plan or were unable to act in time.
Several factors contribute to slow evacuations:
- Risk perception: People react differently based on what they see and hear. If there’s no visible smoke, some may hesitate. Others may follow their neighbors’ lead, delaying action.
- Lack of preparedness: Many residents in wildfire-prone areas do not have emergency plans or packed “go bags.” Searching for important items in a crisis wastes valuable time.
- Limited experience with disasters: Rapid urban expansion means more people are moving into wildfire-prone areas without knowing how to respond to an evacuation.
- Few escape routes: Many wildfire zones have limited roads, causing massive traffic jams when residents try to leave at the same time.
- Changing wildfire patterns: Large fires are now occurring in regions that historically did not experience them, catching residents and emergency services off guard.
How Computer Simulations Can Help
To address these challenges, researchers at Boise State University’s Hazard and Climate Resilience Institute are developing computer models to predict evacuation bottlenecks.
By surveying communities in Idaho and Oregon, the team collects data on:
- Residents’ planned evacuation routes
- The number of vehicles they will use
- Where they intend to go
- How prepared they are to evacuate quickly
This information is fed into a simulation that maps out evacuation timelines and potential trouble spots. Fire managers can use this data to adjust their strategies such as issuing earlier warnings in high-risk areas or reinforcing critical escape routes.
Despite growing awareness of wildfire risks, many people remain unprepared. Concepts like the “go bag” are widely promoted but poorly understood. Residents often forget essentials like medications, pet supplies, or important documents.
Communication during evacuations is another challenge. Warning systems such as “Ready, Set, Go!” are meant to guide actions, but their effectiveness depends on people understanding and trusting the system. Delays and mixed messages can create confusion and hesitation.
As wildfires become more frequent and intense, preparedness is no longer optional. Emergency alerts vary by region, so residents should sign up for local notifications and understand evacuation procedures in advance.
Computer simulations offer a powerful tool to improve emergency response and reduce the risks of chaotic evacuations. By combining technology with better community awareness, authorities can help ensure safer and faster evacuations—potentially saving lives when disaster strikes.