The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecasted an above-normal summer monsoon across East and South Asia in 2025, signaling a potentially wetter season for a region that is home to more than 60% of the world’s population. The prediction, issued through the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRA II), comes amid a global transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.
According to seasonal projections consolidated from WMO’s Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts, the 2025 boreal summer will bring above-average rainfall to large parts of East and South Asia. This monsoon uptick is expected to benefit agriculture-dependent economies but also raises the risk of flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying and urban areas.
Key impacts:
- Increased rainfall in agricultural zones may aid crop productivity
- Flood-prone regions must prepare for possible waterlogging and infrastructure stress
- Drought-affected zones could see relief with improved soil moisture and reservoir recharge
Warmer Than Usual: Heatwave & Energy Risks
Temperature forecasts indicate that summer 2025 will likely be warmer than average across most of Asia. Urban heat island effects and increased cooling demand may pressure energy systems and public health infrastructure.
- Elevated heat stress risks in megacities
- Greater demand for electricity and water
- Implications for heat-related illness and labor productivity
Tropical Cyclones: No Spike, But Stay Alert
The forecast predicts a near-normal frequency of tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific and South China Sea. While no major surge in cyclone activity is expected, coastal communities and disaster preparedness agencies are urged to maintain vigilance and continue infrastructure fortification.
ENSO Shift: From La Niña to Neutral
A major shift in global ocean-atmosphere dynamics is shaping this year’s climate. The Pacific Ocean is moving out of a La Niña pattern known for its suppressing influence on Asian monsoons and entering a neutral ENSO phase. This transition reduces global interference and allows local climate drivers, such as the monsoon circulation, to assert greater influence over regional weather patterns.
Policy & Preparedness Imperatives
With a stronger monsoon on the horizon, governments, disaster response agencies, and civil society actors are encouraged to:
- Update flood early warning systems
- Scale up heatwave preparedness in urban centers
- Align water and agricultural planning with expected rainfall surpluses
- Integrate the forecast into food security, energy, and health planning
Since its launch in 2009, FOCRA II has played a pivotal role in enabling National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across Asia to anticipate climate risks and improve resilience planning. This 2025 outlook serves as both a warning and a guidepost for climate-sensitive sectors.
As Asia prepares for a wetter, warmer summer, coordinated climate response efforts will be critical to protect livelihoods, ecosystems, and economic stability.