Winter in Rajasthan is disappearing faster than ever, with rising temperatures, weak rainfall and shifting weather patterns severely disrupting agriculture and rural livelihoods, according to ground reports and scientific observations.
What was once a gradual seasonal transition has now become abrupt. February and March are witnessing unusually high temperatures, with summer-like conditions arriving weeks earlier than expected. Experts say this shrinking winter window is already taking a heavy toll on crops, livestock and traditional farming cycles.
Meteorological data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that rainfall during the 2025–26 winter season remained drastically below normal, with some regions recording deficits as high as 97 percent. At the same time, the number of active western disturbances crucial weather systems that bring winter rain has dropped significantly, with only two to three recorded this season compared to the usual five to six.
Farmers across the state report widespread crop damage. According to scientists at the Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI), yields of key Rabi crops such as wheat, mustard and gram have declined by 25 to 30 percent. The quality of produce has also deteriorated, with mustard showing reduced oil content and wheat grains appearing shrivelled and underdeveloped.
“The winter season is becoming shorter, and crops are not getting the stable conditions they need from sowing to maturity,” said agricultural experts, noting that ideal growing conditions have dropped from around 120 days to just 90 days this year.
In desert districts such as Jaisalmer and Barmer, the impact has been especially severe. Farmers say delayed winter onset, followed by a brief cold spell and then sudden heat, has damaged crops at multiple stages. Moisture in traditional water-harvesting systems evaporated quickly, leaving fields dry and reducing germination rates.
Changing wind patterns have further compounded the crisis. Moisture-bearing north-westerly winds, which typically support winter agriculture, were largely absent this season. As a result, crops suffered from what farmers describe as “thirsting” a lack of soil moisture essential for growth.
Livestock are also under stress. Fluctuating temperatures hot days and cold nights have led to rising cases of illness among sheep and goats. Herders face a difficult dilemma: shearing animals exposes them to cold nights, while leaving them unshorn increases heat stress during the day.
Environmental experts warn that these changes reflect a broader shift driven by climate change. Reduced snowfall in the Himalayan region and declining western disturbances are altering long-established weather patterns across north-west India.
In cities like Jaipur, the transformation is equally stark. Data shows that cold conditions lasted barely two weeks this winter, with night-time temperatures falling below 10°C on only a limited number of days. February has already emerged as one of the warmest in recent years, with temperatures in some areas crossing 40°C unusually early.
The absence of “Mawath” the winter rainfall critical for strengthening cold conditions and supporting crops has further deepened the crisis. Instead of the usual four to five rainfall events, only one or two were recorded this season, leaving fields dry and farmers struggling.
Beyond agriculture, scientists warn that ecosystems are also being affected. Native species such as the Khejri tree are flowering earlier than usual, indicating shifts in natural biological cycles.
Experts say the trend is a clear warning sign. As winters grow shorter and less predictable, both farming systems and rural communities will need to adapt rapidly. Without timely interventions, including climate-resilient agriculture and better water management, the region could face deeper economic and ecological challenges in the years ahead.
For many farmers, however, the crisis is already here marked by failing crops, rising uncertainty, and a season that no longer behaves as it once did.