A major shift is underway in how droughts form across the planet, with rising temperatures now playing a more dominant role than declining rainfall. The study, published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, reveals that by the end of 2025, nearly 30 per cent of the world’s land surface was affected by drought almost three times higher than the roughly 10 per cent recorded in the 1990s. Researchers say this marks not just an increase in scale, but a fundamental transformation in the nature of drought itself.
Traditionally, droughts have been linked to a lack of rainfall. However, the latest findings show that drought is increasingly being driven by “evaporative demand” a process in which higher temperatures cause the atmosphere to draw more moisture from soil and vegetation. This means regions can experience severe drought even without significant declines in precipitation.
The research, based on long-term climate data from the ERA5-Land dataset developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, tracked global drought patterns from 1950 to 2025. It found that 2025 ranked as the sixth most drought-affected year in that period, with around 1.2 per cent of land experiencing extreme drought conditions.
Scientists noted that the years between 2020 and 2025 have been particularly alarming. For the first time in recorded history, drought conditions consistently affected close to or more than 30 per cent of global land area over multiple consecutive years. This sustained high baseline suggests drought is no longer an occasional extreme event but part of a persistent global pattern.
The study highlights that rising global temperatures 2025 recorded among the hottest years on record have intensified evaporation rates. Even natural cooling patterns such as La Niña have failed to reverse this long-term trend.
The impact has been widespread, affecting every inhabited continent.
In Africa, prolonged drought since 2023 has deepened food and water insecurity, particularly in countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Uganda. In Asia, high-altitude regions like the Tibetan Plateau often called the continent’s “water tower” are facing reduced snow accumulation, threatening water supplies for billions downstream.
Europe experienced one of its most severe combined heat and drought episodes in over a century, with the United Kingdom enduring an unusually hot and dry spring and summer. In South America, eastern Amazonia and southern Brazil recorded severe water stress, while North America saw reduced snowpack and heightened wildfire activity linked to prolonged dryness.
Extreme drought conditions were concentrated in regions including West Africa, western Europe, eastern South America, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Several major economies including the United States, China, Brazil, and Iran reported some of their lowest drought index levels in decades.
In some areas, the consequences are approaching critical thresholds. Iran, for instance, faces the risk of reaching “Day Zero,” a point at which municipal water systems could fail entirely.
Experts warn that this shift toward heat-driven drought represents a significant challenge for water management, agriculture, and climate adaptation strategies worldwide. As warming continues, even regions with stable rainfall may struggle with water scarcity due to increased evaporation.
The findings underscore a stark reality: drought in the twenty-first century is no longer just about how much it rains, but how much water the atmosphere takes away.