New Delhi, July 20: Increasingly unpredictable monsoon patterns linked to climate change and El Niño are making it harder for India’s rainfed farmers to decide when to sow crops according to an analysis. Experts say the growing mismatch between seasonal forecasts and field level conditions highlights the need for more localized weather advisories and decision support systems.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had initially forecast the southwest monsoon to reach Kerala on May 26, five days ahead of the normal onset. However, the monsoon arrived on June 4, three days later than usual, creating a nine day gap between the forecast and the actual onset. Researchers say such uncertainties can have major consequences for farmers who rely solely on rainfall for crop cultivation.
Although IMD second stage forecast projected seasonal rainfall at 90 per cent of the long period average, June ended with rainfall nearly 40 per cent below normal, making it the fifth driest June since 1901. Rainfall improved during July but the recovery remained uneven across regions and crops.
The analysis notes that El Niño conditions, confirmed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), contributed to the weak monsoon performance. However scientists caution that other climatic factors, including the Madden Julian Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, also influence rainfall distribution and timing.
Kharif sowing has been significantly affected by the delayed and uneven rainfall. As of July 10, crops had been sown across 531.25 lakh hectares, around 16 per cent lower than the same period last year. Pulses recorded the largest decline at 23.3 per cent, followed by coarse cereals at 22.5 per cent and oilseeds at 21 per cent. These crops are largely grown in rainfed regions with limited irrigation facilities.
Researchers point out that traditional agricultural calendars, such as the sowing period associated with the month of Ashar, were historically supported by local observations of rainfall, soil moisture and seasonal indicators. However increasing climate variability has made these traditional cues less reliable while localized scientific advisory systems remain inadequate.
The authors recommend strengthening district level and block level advisory services that provide real time sowing guidance based on local rainfall conditions. They also call for improvements in crop insurance and resowing support, noting that existing schemes often fail to address the risks faced by farmers after false monsoon starts.
According to the researchers, improving seasonal forecasts alone will not be sufficient. They argue that adaptive decision support tools capable of translating rapidly changing weather information into timely farm level guidance will be essential as climate change continues to increase monsoon variability across India.