Hotter, drier and windier conditions driven by climate change could dramatically increase the area affected by wildfires across Europe, according to a study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Researchers estimate that under a low emissions scenario around 39% more land could burn annually by the end of the century compared with the current average. Under a high emissions scenario, the increase could reach about 192%.
The study compared projected fire activity for 2070–2100 with the 2000–2030 reference period. Even with warming limited to around 1.8°C, researchers expect widespread increases in burned areas. At around 3.6°C of warming, fire activity could rise sharply, particularly around the Mediterranean and across Western and Central Europe.
Better fire management could limit future wildfire losses
The researchers also examined how prevention, early detection and firefighting could reduce the impact of worsening fire conditions. Continued improvements in fire management could potentially reduce burned areas by 92% under a 1.8°C warming scenario and by 72% under a roughly 3.6°C scenario.
However, scientists cautioned that these estimates may be optimistic because extremely severe fires could eventually overwhelm firefighting systems.
The warning comes as Europe experiences another severe wildfire season. According to the European Forest Fire Information System, about 550,000 hectares had burned across the EU by August 12, 2026 roughly 2.5 times the 20-year average for that point in the year.
Researchers stressed that Europe will need greater investment in trained firefighting crews, equipment, coordination, prevention and early detection. At the same time, reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential to prevent fire conditions from becoming too extreme to manage.