LIMA: The deadly glacier related disaster in the Himalayas has renewed attention on Peru’s vulnerability to glacial lake outburst floods, as the country faces rapidly retreating glaciers, ageing protective infrastructure and gaps in disaster risk management.
A report citing Dialogue Earth, highlights how Peru developed one of the world’s pioneering programmes for managing glacier related risks after a catastrophic flood from Palcacocha glacial lake devastated Huaraz in 1941.
The disaster killed thousands and prompted Peru to establish systematic monitoring of glacial lakes and preventive engineering works in glacier fed basins.
Over subsequent decades, Peruvian scientists and engineers developed measures including controlled lowering of lake levels, drainage tunnels, reinforced dams and hydraulic overflow channels. Researchers involved in the programme say around 35 glacial lakes in the Cordillera Blanca were stabilised through such interventions.
The experience became particularly important after further disasters struck the region. In 1962, an ice avalanche from Huascarán destroyed Ranrahirca, while the 1970 earthquake-triggered avalanche on Huascarán engulfed Yungay and Ranrahirca, killing about 25,000 people in less than 10 minutes.
However, much of Peru earlier institutional capacity for glacier risk management has weakened. The country’s historic Glaciology and Lake Safety Programme was closed amid budget cuts around 2000 while responsibilities for preventive action have become divided among national, regional and local institutions.
Today, Peru National Glaciers and Mountain Ecosystems Research Institute (Inaigem) focuses primarily on research, hazard assessment and technical assistance rather than directly implementing preventive construction projects.
The scale of the remaining risk is substantial. Inaigem has assessed more than 8,000 glacial lakes across Peru and identified 528 as being at risk of overflowing. Of these 169 are in Ancash, the region where the country three deadliest glacier disasters of the past century occurred.
Palcacocha remains one of the most prominent concerns. According to Inaigem, the lake’s water volume had increased about 34 fold between 1972 and 2016. The dam constructed more than five decades ago has also been assessed as potentially dangerous, with the lake posing a risk to Huaraz a city of roughly 120,000 people.
Scientists have linked the changing conditions around Palcacocha to human caused climate change, while the continued retreat of Peru’s glaciers is creating additional challenges for communities dependent on mountain water systems.
Inaigem data from 2023 showed that Peru had lost 56% of its glacier cover over the previous six decades. The retreat is increasing concerns not only about sudden floods but also about long term water availability.
Experts cited in the report estimate that between 60% and 65% of Peru’s population depends on water regulated by river basins originating in glaciated areas. Meanwhile, around 58% of Peruvians are estimated to live in areas experiencing water scarcity.
Early warning systems are becoming an increasingly important part of Peru response. A functioning system can potentially provide communities with six to 25 minutes to evacuate before a glacial flood reaches them. Inaigem has installed real time monitoring stations in Huaraz, Cusco and Huánuco, although the Huaraz system has experienced operational difficulties.
The recent Himalayan disaster has added urgency to these concerns. The collapse of a glacier near the Nepal China border in late August triggered landslides and flash flooding through downstream valleys, killing more than 1,300 people and leaving thousands missing, according to the report.
For Peru the episode serves as a reminder that glacier hazards are changing as temperatures rise and ice retreats. Scientists and disaster risk experts say maintaining monitoring systems, technical expertise, early warning networks and physical protection measures will be crucial for communities living below unstable glacial lakes.
The challenge is not limited to sudden disasters. As glaciers shrink the same mountain systems that can generate destructive floods are also becoming less reliable sources of long term water storage, creating a second and slower moving risk for Peru cities and agricultural communities.