Rising temperatures in the Arctic are causing frozen ground to thaw, creating growing risks for roads, buildings, pipelines and coastal communities built on permafrost. Researchers are now using drones geophysical surveys and digital twin technology to detect these changes and predict future damage.
In places such as Wainwright and Utqiaġvik in Alaska, permafrost contains large amounts of ground ice. When that ice melts the soil can lose stability, causing land to sink and infrastructure to tilt, crack or become damaged. Coastal thaw can also accelerate erosion, bringing shorelines closer to homes and roads.
Researchers are using drone mounted electromagnetic sensors to examine underground conditions without extensive drilling. The technique can help identify areas where frozen ground has thawed, particularly in wetlands and coastal regions that are difficult to access.
A 2026 study examining Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain found that under a high emissions scenario, the share of infrastructure exposed to permafrost related damage could rise sharply later this century. By the 2090s, the study projects that about 80% of buildings, 60% of roads and 90% of pipelines could face damage associated with land subsidence.
Scientists are also developing digital twins computer models that replicate real world infrastructure and its surrounding environment. These systems combine information from sensors temperature measurements and geophysical surveys with physical models and machine learning to improve forecasts of how frozen ground and infrastructure may change.
Researchers say combining drone surveys, underground mapping and continuous monitoring could give Arctic communities more time to identify vulnerable areas and plan repairs, reinforcement or relocation.
As permafrost thaw accelerates scientists increasingly view the issue not only as an environmental challenge but also as a major infrastructure and engineering concern.