Scientists are developing a new approach to predicting extreme wildfires by studying how rising fire plumes interact with the atmosphere, offering firefighters potentially vital information to anticipate sudden changes in fire behaviour.
Research by wildfire expert Marc Castellnou at Wageningen University & Research, in collaboration with the GRAF/Bombers Catalonia team, focuses on measuring atmospheric conditions inside and around wildfire plumes. The findings come amid growing concern following one of Europe’s most devastating wildfire summers.
Castellnou launches weather balloons directly into towering fire plumes to measure temperature, wind speed and humidity. By combining these observations with meteorological data and computer models, researchers aim to improve predictions of how fires develop and identify conditions that could lead to dangerous escalation.
Wildfires can create their own weather
Extreme wildfires are becoming an increasingly serious challenge as climate change intensifies heatwaves and droughts. These fires can accelerate within minutes, leaving firefighters and nearby communities with little time to respond.
Unlike many other natural hazards, intense wildfires can influence the weather around them. As flames grow they generate powerful plumes of hot air that can rise several kilometres into the atmosphere and sometimes develop into pyroclouds.
These plumes interact with the surrounding atmosphere, creating powerful winds that can alter the fire’s direction and intensity. The resulting feedback between the fire and the atmosphere can trigger sudden changes in wind speed and direction, allowing flames to spread rapidly and unpredictably.
Understanding this interaction is essential for firefighters, who must assess not only how weather conditions affect a fire but also how the fire itself may change those conditions.
Measurements could provide early warnings
Castellnou’s approach examines the temperature, humidity and wind conditions within a rising plume and compares them with the surrounding atmosphere. Because warm air tends to rise, the temperature difference between the plume and its environment can help researchers assess whether it is likely to continue growing. Wind and atmospheric stability also influence its development.
Monitoring these conditions before a pyrocloud forms could give firefighters an earlier indication that a fire may become more dangerous. A growing plume can produce strong inflows and abrupt surface level wind changes, potentially turning a manageable situation into a life threatening one.
Real time measurements could help crews make better informed decisions, improve awareness of changing conditions and assess whether their firefighting strategies remain safe. They may also indicate when particular tactics should be abandoned as the risk increases.
Why some wildfires remain extreme overnight
The research also helps explain why certain wildfires continue to burn intensely after sunset. Traditionally, cooler nighttime temperatures and higher humidity have often slowed fires, giving crews an opportunity to strengthen containment efforts.
However, powerful fire plumes can create layers of warm, turbulent air high above the ground. This fire modified atmosphere may persist after surface temperatures fall, allowing plumes to continue rising and supporting extreme fire behaviour throughout the night.
The findings suggest that firefighters cannot always rely on nighttime conditions to reduce wildfire intensity. Understanding how a fire changes the atmosphere could help crews anticipate dangerous overnight developments and prepare accordingly.
Turning research into practical firefighting knowledge
Castellnou’s findings are already helping firefighters understand and respond to extreme fires, including recent wildfires near Madrid. The work highlights the importance of combining scientific research with the practical experience of firefighting teams.
By integrating atmospheric measurements, computer modelling and observations from real incidents, researchers hope to improve the prediction of extreme fire behaviour and provide more timely information to emergency crews.
Although the approach is not a guarantee that every sudden change can be predicted it offers a promising way to narrow the knowledge gap surrounding extreme wildfires and support safer more effective decisions on the ground.