Southern Madagascar is in the grip of what the United Nations has called the world’s first “climate change famine,” with tens of thousands suffering catastrophic hunger. New research from climate scientist Chris Funk and his team at the University of California, Santa Barbara, links this crisis directly to years of failed rains and increasing climate volatility tied to warming oceans.
According to Funk, five of the last six rainy seasons in southern Madagascar have failed, pushing the region into prolonged drought. Satellite data from the Climate Hazards Group’s Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) system has recorded rainfall totals that rank in the lowest 10% since 1981. Warmer-than-normal air temperatures in recent years have also led to higher atmospheric water demand, accelerating the drying out of soil and vegetation. This persistent stress has weakened the ability of local communities to cope.
What’s driving this change, researchers say, is a surge in extreme sea surface temperature events in the Indo-Pacific region, where warming oceans are triggering more frequent and intense El Niño, La Niña, and Indian Ocean Dipole events. Each year since 2014 has seen at least one of these major climate anomalies. These shifts have disrupted global weather patterns and drastically altered the rainfall cycle in eastern and southern Africa.
The impacts have been devastating. Southern Madagascar has seen below-average harvests of rice, maize, pulses, and cassava its staple crops contributing to rising food prices and widespread malnutrition. Satellite imagery confirms vegetation stress across large swaths of the region.
Looking ahead, Funk warns that these patterns are likely to intensify. The latest IPCC report forecasts a shift toward more El Niño-like conditions, further drying southern Madagascar. “We’re not just looking at projections we’re already living them,” he said, emphasizing the need to rethink climate change not as a distant threat, but as a present force reshaping livelihoods in vulnerable regions.
Despite the dire outlook, there is hope in adaptation. Community-led efforts like Tatirano, a Malagasy enterprise promoting rainwater harvesting, are offering lifelines. By increasing soil moisture retention and capturing rare rainfall, such initiatives help communities adapt to erratic precipitation. Larger-scale natural water storage like rock reservoirs may offer further resilience against future shocks.
Funk’s team is also developing better early warning systems using climate observations to guide local decision-making. Tools like these, coupled with investments in water resource management, risk reduction, and climate-smart agriculture, are seen as vital in preventing future food crises.
Similar climate-induced droughts are now emerging across East Africa. Zimbabwe and Ethiopia are both grappling with failed rains, compounded by conflict and economic instability. Scientists warn that unless rapid investments are made in climate resilience, Madagascar may be the first climate famine but it will not be the last.