Scientists warn a potential super El Nino in 2026 could disrupt fisheries damage coral reefs and leave seals sea lions and other marine wildlife struggling to survive.
Scientists are warning that there is more than a 60% chance of a super El Nino developing by the end of 2026. If it occurs, the powerful climate event could have severe consequences for marine ecosystems, global fisheries and ocean wildlife.
A super El Nino is the strongest form of El Niño and occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. The additional heat released from the ocean can increase global temperatures and intensify climate related impacts worldwide.
Researchers say climate change is making El Niño events stronger and more frequent. With oceans already warming, another super El Niño could place additional stress on marine ecosystems that are still recovering from the 2023-24 El Niño event.
Super El Niño Could Trigger Major Threats to Oceans and Fisheries
One of the biggest concerns is the disruption of ocean nutrient cycles. Warmer surface waters create stronger layers in the ocean preventing nutrient rich cold water from reaching the surface. This reduces the growth of phytoplankton, microscopic plants that form the foundation of marine food webs.
As phytoplankton decline food supplies shrink for zooplankton, fish, seabirds and marine mammals. The impacts are especially severe in the eastern Pacific Ocean where the Humboldt Current normally brings nutrient rich waters to the surface. During El Nino events, this process weakens significantly.
The effects on fisheries can be dramatic. Peru’s anchoveta fishery, the world’s largest single species fishery, has historically suffered major losses during strong El Niño events. Catch levels fell by more than 50% during the super El Niño years of the early 1970s. Today the fishery remains crucial to global fishmeal production, supplying feed used in aquaculture around the world.
Current El Niño conditions have already led to reduced fishing quotas and fishery closures in some regions. Rising fishmeal prices are increasing costs for fish farmers and could eventually affect seafood prices globally.
Marine habitats are also at risk. Elevated ocean temperatures can trigger widespread coral bleaching, causing corals to lose the algae they depend on for survival. The 2023-24 El Niño caused extensive coral damage across parts of Australia, Mexico and Costa Rica.
Other coastal ecosystems have also suffered during past El Niño events. Kelp forests along the California coast have declined sharply, mangroves in Australia have experienced die-offs and sensitive marine habitats in the Galapagos Islands have been severely degraded.
Large marine animals often face severe food shortages during strong El Niño periods. Past events have caused widespread starvation among fur seals and sea lions in the Galapagos Islands and along the coast of South America. Scientists observed mother seals spending unusually long periods searching for food as prey became scarce.
El Nino can also encourage harmful algal blooms. These rapid algae growth events can release toxins that harm marine life and have been linked to whale deaths in affected coastal waters.
Researchers say the full impact of a potential super El Niño remains uncertain. However with ocean ecosystems already under pressure from climate change another extreme warming event could become one of the most damaging marine disruptions in recent years.