FAO warns that a developing El Niño could trigger severe droughts across key farming regions, threatening crops, livestock, and millions of vulnerable people worldwide.
A new El Niño climate pattern is expected to develop within weeks, prompting fresh concerns about agricultural production and food security across several regions of the world. According to an analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, drought risks linked to El Niño are likely to intensify across parts of Africa, Asia, Central America, and the Caribbean, placing crops, pasturelands and rural livelihoods under significant pressure.
Using 41 years of satellite observations from its Agricultural Stress Index System, FAO experts mapped areas most vulnerable to drought during strong and very strong El Niño events. The findings suggest that some agricultural regions face more than a 50 percent probability of severe drought in the coming months.
The highest risks have been identified across the Sahel region of Africa, Southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Central America’s Dry Corridor. These regions are heavily dependent on rainfall for agriculture and are already grappling with food insecurity, economic stress and climate related challenges.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The event can alter global weather patterns, often bringing drought to some regions while causing floods in others.
FAO officials warn that the upcoming El Niño could have more severe consequences than previous events because it will occur in a significantly warmer world. Rising global temperatures are amplifying the intensity of climate extremes and increasing pressure on vulnerable communities.
“This isn’t like previous El Niños. The planet is much warmer today, and with conflict and food insecurity widespread, this new phase will hit hardest in places that are already vulnerable and have limited coping capacity,” said Jorge Alvar Beltrán, FAO Natural Resources Officer.
The organization noted that El Niño events repeatedly expose the same vulnerable regions to crop failures, livestock losses, water shortages, rising debt, and migration. During the powerful 2015-16 El Niño, more than 60 million people were affected globally, prompting humanitarian appeals worth approximately $5 billion across 23 countries.
Southern Africa remains one of the regions at greatest risk. The previous El Niño cycle brought the area’s worst drought in more than a century, affecting 61 million people and pushing over 8 million individuals into food insecurity. Current forecasts indicate a greater than 50 percent probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia, Botswana, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique, and Madagascar.
In Asia, concerns are growing over the potential weakening of the summer monsoon. Countries including India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines could face reduced rainfall during crucial growing seasons. Such conditions could threaten rice and maize production, potentially affecting global food supplies and commodity prices.
Central America and the Caribbean are also expected to face heightened drought risks. The 2015-16 El Niño left 3.5 million people food insecure across Central America’s Dry Corridor, while Haiti experienced crop losses of up to 70 percent. Current forecasts suggest a 70 percent chance of below normal rainfall across much of the region.
Recognizing the potential humanitarian consequences, FAO and the World Food Programme have launched a joint anticipatory action appeal seeking $202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high risk countries. The initiative aims to support farmers and pastoralists before droughts and other climate related disasters escalate into emergencies.
Experts emphasize that early action can significantly reduce losses. Measures such as planting drought resistant crops, storing livestock feed, improving irrigation, securing water supplies, and distributing financial assistance can help communities better withstand climate shocks.
FAO Natural Resources Officer Riccardo Soldan said detailed risk mapping allows governments to target support more effectively. Rather than spreading resources broadly, authorities can focus assistance on the areas facing the greatest threat.
The organization points to successful early action efforts during the 2023-24 El Niño in Southern Africa, where nearly $31 million was invested to support more than two million people through seed distribution, livestock assistance and improved forecasting systems.
With El Niño conditions rapidly developing, FAO says the coming weeks will be critical. While the climate phenomenon itself cannot be prevented, timely interventions could help reduce its impact on food production, livelihoods and vulnerable populations around the world.