A rapid attribution study has confirmed that human-induced climate change played a significant role in the catastrophic floods and landslides that struck Eastern Northeast Brazil in May 2022, leading to severe human and material losses.
The study analyzed daily rainfall patterns over the region, focusing on 7-day and 15-day mean rainfall events. Findings revealed that the 2022 extreme rainfall events were exceptionally rare, with a 1-in-500 chance of occurring in any given year for the 7-day period and a 1-in-1000 chance for the 15-day period under current climate conditions.
Using a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations, researchers found that global warming had significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of such extreme rainfall. By integrating observational data with physical climate system understanding, the study concluded that anthropogenic climate change has made such devastating weather events more frequent and severe.
Rising Risk of Extreme Events
The study underscores the growing threat of climate change-driven disasters in vulnerable regions. As global temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood of prolonged heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding is expected to increase, reinforcing the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies and improved disaster resilience planning in Brazil and beyond.