A major portion of global crop production could be at risk as temperatures rise beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius a new study published in Nature Food has revealed. The research warns that low-latitude regions, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, will face the most significant challenges in maintaining agricultural output under increasing climate pressures.
Threat to Crop Diversity and Agricultural Stability
The study conducted by researchers from Aalto University (Finland), University of Göttingen (Germany) and University of Zürich (Switzerland), analyzed 30 major crops across four warming scenarios ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C. Findings indicate that as temperatures rise beyond 2°C a significant portion of agricultural land will be exposed to unprecedented climatic conditions, disrupting established farming practices.
Under a 2°C warming scenario crop diversity is projected to decline on 52% of global croplands. If warming surpasses 3°C, this number could increase to 56%. Alarmingly between 10-31% of current crop production would shift outside its established climatic niche, with the percentage rising to 20-48% under 3°C warming.
Middle East, Africa Among Most Affected Regions
The study highlights that nearly 50% of cropland in the Middle East and North Africa is already at considerable risk under 1.5°C warming. If temperatures reach 3°C, this figure could climb to 69%. Similarly, in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, around 60% of croplands would be at considerable risk.
Conversely the Northern Hemisphere is expected to be less affected. Around 80% of croplands in North America and 77% in Europe and Central Asia would remain within their safe climatic space under all studied warming scenarios.
Defining Climatic Risk for Crop Production
The study applied the concept of safe climatic space (SCS) to assess the risks posed to global agriculture. Using parameters such as annual precipitation, bio-temperature, and aridity, researchers mapped the climate niches of major crops. Areas falling outside these niches would require completely new agricultural strategies, with no historical precedent to guide adaptation.
A significant concern is that low-latitude regions, already facing food security challenges, may not be able to compensate for climate-induced declines in crop yields. By 2100, up to 30% of global food crop production could experience climate conditions currently unsuitable for agriculture.
Call for Urgent Climate Action
The study underscores the urgency of climate action to mitigate agricultural risks. Researchers argue that incremental changes in farming techniques may not be enough to offset the negative effects of global warming on low-latitude agriculture.
To secure food supply in vulnerable regions, governments and international organizations must prioritize climate adaptation strategies, including trade agreements, climate financing, and agricultural innovation. Strengthening global climate governance is crucial to ensuring long-term food security in a rapidly changing world.
With agricultural livelihoods at stake, the study highlights that urgent measures are needed to build resilience against climate change and protect global food systems from impending disruption.