A new study warns that rising temperatures caused by climate change could make banana farming uneconomical in many parts of Latin America and the Caribbean by 2080. The research published in Nature Food by the University of Exeter, highlights how climate shifts will shrink the best areas for banana cultivation while exposing more farm workers to extreme heat.
Bananas valued at $11 billion annually, are a crucial export crop for many economies. However the study projects that 60% of current banana-producing regions will struggle to sustain production in the coming decades without urgent intervention. Socioeconomic factors such as labor availability and infrastructure also present major barriers to adapting banana farming to climate change. Since banana production is concentrated in densely populated areas near ports, shifting cultivation to more suitable regions is difficult.
Countries like Colombia and Costa Rica face the highest risk, as they are expected to become too hot for efficient banana farming. Meanwhile, Ecuador and parts of Brazil may remain viable due to their relatively lower climate vulnerability.
The researchers used high-resolution satellite imagery to assess banana production conditions and predict future climate impacts. Their findings underscore the urgent need for adaptation strategies, including improved irrigation, breeding heat-resistant banana varieties, and supporting farmers in managing climate risks. Without such measures, the future of banana exports and the livelihoods of millions of workers in producing countries remains uncertain.