New study has revealed a striking transformation in the Thar Desert long known for its arid climate showing significant greening across both monsoon and non-monsoon seasons between 2001 and 2020. But behind this apparent revival lies a looming ecological concern: groundwater depletion, driven by rapid agricultural and urban expansion.
Researchers compared the seasonal cycle of vegetation greenness between 2001–2010 and 2011–2020, finding a substantial rise in greenery during both summer monsoon (June–September) and the drier months (October–May). However, they traced this trend back to a dramatic surge in farming activity and irrigation.
Between 1980 and 2015, the Thar region witnessed a 74% rise in crop area and a 24% increase in irrigated area. Gross and net irrigated areas expanded even more sharply by 95% and 58%, respectively. The summer monsoon coincides with the Kharif crop season, which relies heavily on rainfall. But Rabi crops grown in winter depend on irrigation, especially from groundwater reserves.
To measure the impact, scientists examined groundwater levels using well data from the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) and satellite readings from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) for the period 2002–2021. Their findings show that groundwater levels have been falling rapidly especially in north-central Thar, where greening has been most visible during the monsoon and winter.
The study paints a concerning picture: even as greenery spreads, groundwater is vanishing. The imbalance between water extraction for irrigation and natural recharge is growing.
Adding to the strain is the rapid pace of urbanisation. Between 1985 and 2020, several parts of the Thar Desert saw urban areas expand by 50% to an astonishing 800%. The region’s population growth between 2000 and 2020 surpassed that of most other desert ecosystems, trailing only the Arabian Desert.
“This population growth is visible in the dramatic expansion of cropland and urban areas, driven by lower land prices and cultivation potential,” the study said. Access to water especially through the Indira Gandhi Canal, which channels water from north India played a key role in enabling this growth.
Looking ahead scientists projected a 20–50% increase in annual rainfall in the Thar, depending on emission scenarios and future timelines. But this doesn’t necessarily spell relief.
“While the rise in summer monsoon rainfall is encouraging, the region will also face more frequent and intense heat extremes,” the study warned. These extremes could increase energy demands for cooling, strain irrigation systems, and reduce labour capacity. Water scarcity may also worsen during dry spells, putting both agriculture and urban life at risk.
In short, Thar’s greener landscape may be hiding deeper troubles and without sustainable water management, the desert’s transformation could turn into an environmental crisis.