When a hurricane is brewing in the ocean, where do you turn for the most accurate forecast? With so many computer models out there especially two brand-new ones introduced just last year it can get confusing. But experts still say: trust the National Hurricane Center (NHC) first. Their track forecasts are the most reliable.
In the 2024 hurricane season, which was very active, NHC broke accuracy records. Their storm path predictions up to five days in advance beat all other models, nearly every time. Even the best individual models couldn’t outperform NHC or its top three “consensus” models (which are created by blending forecasts from multiple models).
The Most Trusted Track Models in 2024
- European Model (ECMWF) and GFS Model (USA): These two were the top performers. GFS was better for long-range forecasts.
- HMON Model: Did well at all time scales.
- HWRF and UKMET: Didn’t perform as well.
- HAFS-A and HAFS-B: The newest models did okay for short-term forecasts (under 36 hours) but lost accuracy after that.
Despite the competition, no model beat the NHC’s official track predictions.
The Challenge of Forecasting Storm Strength
Predicting how strong a hurricane will get called intensity forecasting is tougher. It hasn’t improved as much as track prediction. In 2024, storms intensified rapidly, making them harder to predict. Still, NHC’s forecasts held up surprisingly well and were near record-high in skill.
One key improvement: NHC is now better at catching those rapid intensity jumps, which were often missed in the past.
Top Intensity Forecast Models
- Best Performers: NHC itself, and models like HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC (all use detailed 3D simulations).
- Top Statistical Models: LGEM and DSHP.
- Newcomers (HAFS-A & B): Didn’t yet match the older models’ performance for intensity.
Interestingly, the European and GFS models so good at track prediction are still not used for strength forecasts. They’re not reliable for that yet.
Smaller Forecast Cones in 2025
Good news: Because track predictions have become more accurate, the forecast “cones” the area on a map where a hurricane might go will be slightly narrower in 2025 (up to 6% smaller in the Atlantic). That’s great for planning evacuations and preparations.
But remember: the cone doesn’t show where impacts (like rain or wind) will happen just where the center of the storm might go. Hurricane Beryl in 2024 showed why this matters: its worst winds hit Houston, even though the city wasn’t directly in the center of the cone at the time.
Meet HAFS: The Newest Forecast Model
HAFS (Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System) officially launched in June 2024. It’s designed for high-resolution hurricane forecasting, working with the GFS as its base. HAFS comes in two versions:
- HAFS-A: For global ocean basins
- HAFS-B: Focused on areas watched by NHC
HAFS should eventually replace older models like HWRF and HMON, which are now only maintained in “legacy” mode.
Free Places to View Model Forecasts
If you want to see the models yourself, here are some great websites:
- TropicalTidbits.com
- Weathernerds.org
- Cyclonicwx.com
- Pivotalweather.com
- NOAA’s HAFS and hurricane modeling pages
- ECMWF’s AI model page
- Navy’s COAMPS-TC site
What Are Ensemble Models?
Imagine running the same model 30–50 times with slightly different starting data that’s an ensemble. It helps meteorologists understand uncertainty and see possible alternate paths a storm might take. The European model runs 51 ensemble members, while the GFS runs 31.
Ensemble models are helpful when conditions are hard to read or steering winds are weak. If all the runs agree, confidence in the forecast goes up. If they show wide variety, uncertainty remains high.
In 2025, a new AI-based model called AIFS from Europe is also being used. It’s showing promise, especially in track forecasts, and could outperform traditional models for many predictions.
Can Models Predict Storm Formation?
NHC gives daily updates about storm development chances, now looking out as far as seven days. In 2024, their two-day forecasts were pretty accurate. When they said there was a 60% chance of a storm forming, one actually did form about 56% of the time.
But NHC may be too cautious at the high end: every storm given a 70%, 80%, or 90% chance did end up forming.
Old research still holds value here. A 2016 study found the European, UKMET, GFS, and Canadian models could make decent five-day forecasts for storm development. Of these, the European was the most careful with fewer false alarms while the Canadian model was bold but often wrong.
Final Advice
No single model gets it right every time. The best approach is to watch the NHC’s official forecasts and pay attention to what multiple models agree on. Use the cone as a guide but know its limits. And when in doubt, don’t wait to prepare.
The science is improving fast but hurricanes are still powerful, unpredictable forces of nature.