Despite contributing less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions Africa is bearing the brunt of climate change. A new study warns that the continent is “highly likely” to surpass 1.5°C of warming by 2040, worsening extreme weather and threatening agriculture-based livelihoods.
Africa’s annual average temperature has been rising at over 0.5°C per decade for 30 years. Southern Africa has already warmed by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, with North, Southern, and West Africa expected to experience the most intense temperature increases. While rainfall patterns remain unpredictable, many regions especially in the north and west are seeing significant declines. Meanwhile, East and Central African highlands have recorded more frequent heavy rains and floods.
Coastal regions also face a looming crisis, with sea levels projected to rise by half a metre, threatening the Nile Delta and other low-lying areas.
Extreme Weather Disrupting Agriculture
Africa is no stranger to heatwaves, droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones, but these events are becoming more frequent and severe. East Africa has seen repeated droughts and devastating floods, while Southern Africa has experienced worsening drought-flood cycles since the 1960s. West Africa, particularly the Sahel, is facing an increase in prolonged dry spells.
These climate shifts are taking a toll on food production. A study found that maize yields have fallen in nearly 90% of harvested areas in Central Africa due to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall. By 2070, the region could lose over a third of its suitable maize-growing land.
The Need for Climate Justice and Urgent Action
The Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP28, aims to support vulnerable nations, but researchers stress that funds must be distributed transparently and equitably. The study calls for Africa to adopt climate-resilient farming methods, invest in scientific innovations, restore degraded lands, and protect biodiversity.
To ensure fairness, the researchers emphasize three key principles
Distributive justice – fair allocation of resources, particularly for communities most affected.
Procedural justice – inclusive decision-making and full transparency.
Recognition justice – acknowledging all stakeholders and ensuring their rights are upheld.
With rising food insecurity, worsening poverty, and growing inequality, the study highlights the urgent need for a just and sustainable transition. Investing in climate resilience now could help Africa protect its agricultural future and secure livelihoods for millions.