A modelling study led by the Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) reveals alarming projections for the impact of climate change on temperature-related deaths across Europe. Published in Nature Medicine, the study predicts a substantial rise in deaths from heat, far outweighing any reduction in cold-related fatalities.
Without immediate action to reduce carbon emissions, climate change could result in over 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths across 854 European cities by the end of this century. The Mediterranean region, Central Europe, and the Balkans are identified as particularly vulnerable areas, with major cities like Barcelona, Rome, and Madrid expected to bear the brunt of this crisis.
Adaptation Alone is Insufficient
The study underscores that even high levels of adaptation to heat would not fully mitigate the increased health risks. Efforts such as urban cooling measures, improved infrastructure, and public health strategies may reduce risks but cannot offset the rise in mortality caused by extreme heat. Only rapid and aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can substantially lower the projected death toll.
Dr. Pierre Masselot, lead author of the study, emphasized:
“Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, the consequences could be dire. But by following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century.”
Cities Most Affected by Heat-Related Deaths
The study identified the ten cities expected to experience the highest cumulative increases in heat-related deaths by 2099:
Barcelona, Spain: 246,082
Rome, Italy: 147,738
Naples, Italy: 147,248
Madrid, Spain: 129,716
Milan, Italy: 110,131
Athens, Greece: 87,523
Valencia, Spain: 67,519
Marseille, France: 51,306
Bucharest, Romania: 47,468
Genoa, Italy: 36,338
While Mediterranean cities are disproportionately affected due to their larger populations and higher baseline temperatures, smaller cities in regions like Malta, Spain, and Italy are also projected to suffer significantly.
Net Mortality Increase Across Europe
In contrast, parts of Northern Europe, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, are expected to see a net decrease in temperature-related deaths. For example, London is projected to avoid 27,455 deaths due to fewer cold-related fatalities. However, these reductions are vastly outweighed by the severe increases in heat-related mortality across the continent.
Call for Urgent Action
Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the study, remarked:
“This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe. These results debunk theories of ‘beneficial’ effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible.”
Future Directions
The researchers utilized a robust methodology, combining temperature risk functions, population data, and climate projections to estimate mortality outcomes. Despite this, the study acknowledges limitations, such as not accounting for specific weather events like extreme nighttime heat or humidity.
The findings highlight the urgent need for coordinated climate action, emphasizing that mitigation efforts to limit global temperature rises are the most effective way to save millions of lives by the end of the century.