The growing impact of climate-driven wildfires is forcing a rethink in how greenhouse gas inventories calculate emissions, says Minal Pathak, an associate professor at Ahmedabad University and co-author of the United Nations Emissions Gap Report. For the first time, the 2024 report has included wildfire emissions, highlighting the complexities of accounting for these fires in global climate data.
Pathak explains that wildfires are categorized as either natural or anthropogenic, with the latter resulting from activities like agricultural burning. While CO₂ from fires is often considered carbon neutral since forests can regrow and reabsorb emissions climate change is altering this balance, making it harder to predict how forests recover and store carbon.
Recent wildfires in Los Angeles, California, and Canada were classified as natural events in emissions inventories, despite clear links to climate change. This creates a blind spot in emissions accounting, as many greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide remain unaccounted for.
Shifting Policies & Data Challenges
Pathak notes that global emissions databases, including the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), are evolving to better capture wildfire emissions. India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC in 2024 already included forest fire emissions, showing rising methane and nitrogen oxide levels.
However, double counting remains a challenge especially in tropical regions, where fires contribute both to deforestation and emissions. “Wildfire emissions could significantly inflate inventories unless we establish clear methods to attribute them to human-induced climate change,” Pathak warns.
The Need for Stronger Fire Management
As wildfires become more frequent and intense, countries must improve fire preparedness, data collection, and response capacity. Pathak questions whether nations like India are adequately equipped to handle large-scale forest fires, highlighting the need for better early warning systems, water management, and community preparedness.
With wildfires projected to worsen, experts stress the urgency of integrating their emissions into climate policies before they become an even greater threat to global carbon balance.