The Hindu Kush Himalaya region could experience a below normal monsoon in 2026, but scientists warn that lower rainfall will not necessarily mean lower disaster risk.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026, released by ICIMOD, forecasts below normal rainfall across parts of Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, along with above normal temperatures across much of the region.
Scientists caution that long dry spells followed by short periods of intense rainfall could increase the risk of flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous areas. Erratic rainfall could also worsen drought conditions and put additional pressure on water resources.
Rising temperatures and weaker snow cover add to water stress
Warmer conditions are expected to increase heat stress and reduce water availability. Lower snow persistence at the beginning of the monsoon season could also reduce the region’s natural water buffer, making rivers and groundwater more dependent on variable rainfall.
The combination of drought and sudden heavy rainfall could create complex challenges for food production, energy systems and communities across the region. Experts also warn that landslides and other disasters could increase socioeconomic pressures, including migration, food-price increases and disruptions to tourism.
Scientists say disaster preparedness must move beyond planning for individual hazards. Stronger early warning systems, short term forecasts, impact based forecasting and locally driven preparedness are needed to help communities respond to rapidly changing conditions.
The outlook is based on multiple global and regional climate models and is intended to support governments, disaster management agencies and communities in preparing for the June–September monsoon season.