Record warmth has been easing as El Niño shows signs of ending. The return of the cold weather phenomenon La Nina this year should help bring down temperatures after several months of record global heat, the United Nations Weather Agency said on Monday.
The impact is likely to be felt in the coming months as the El Nino weather pattern that causes global temperatures and extreme weather from mid-2023 “shows signs of ending,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organization said in its latest update.
The WMO warns, however, that global temperatures will rise in the long term due to human-caused climate change, which continues to worsen extreme climates and increase seasonal rainfall and weather.
La Nina is associated with cooling sea surface temperatures, changes in wind, rainfall, and atmospheric pressure over a large area in the tropical Pacific.
In many places, especially in the tropics, La Nina has the opposite effect of El Niño, which warms the surface of the ocean, causes drought in some parts of the world, and causes heavy rain in other areas.
WMO said there is a “60%” chance of La Nina conditions in July–September and a “70%” chance in August–November. He said the possibility of El Nino re-establishing itself is slim. After El Nino returned, each month set a new high temperature record, and 2023 was the hottest year on the global record.
The WMO says the planet will continue to warm overall from the use of fossil fuels, which produce greenhouse gases. Man-made global warming”The end of El Nino does not mean a pause in long-term climate change, as our planet will continue to warm due to greenhouse gases,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
“Abnormally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role in the coming months.” Excess heat from global climate change is stored in the oceans.
In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed La Nina expectations in its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA says it expects four to seven major hurricanes in the Atlantic between June and November.
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have normal activity in the Atlantic due to many factors, including near-year ocean temperatures, developing Pacific La Nina conditions, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear,” NOAA said on May 23.
The WMO said the last nine years were the hottest on record, even with the cooling effect of the La Nina event that lasted from 2020 to early 2023.
El Nino, which peaks in December, is one of the five strongest on record. “Because of the excess heat and moisture in our atmosphere, the weather will continue to become more extreme,” said Barrett.
The WMO has targeted all regions of the world to be equipped with early warning systems by 2027, especially the most equipped, such as Africa. Seasonal Forecasts for El Nino and La Nina and the Expected Impact on Consumers.
Edited by Dr. Brijendra Kumar Mishra, (Disaster Risk Reduction Expert)