The Global Tipping Points Report, compiled by an international team of 200 scientists and coordinated by the University of Exeter, reveals that the world is at risk of triggering at least five tipping points with potentially devastating consequences. Tipping points are critical thresholds beyond which changes in the climate system become self-perpetuating and lead to irreversible impacts. The report, set to be published during the UN Climate Conference (COP28) in Dubai, identifies the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, warm-water coral reefs, North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation, and permafrost regions as already at risk. The report emphasizes the inadequacy of current global governance to address the scale of the challenge and calls for coordinated action to trigger positive tipping points.
At current warming levels, the world faces the risk of crossing these tipping points, leading to cascading and irreversible impacts. The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, warm-water coral reefs, North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation, and permafrost regions are identified as systems already at risk.
The report suggests that tipping points for the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica may already have been breached at the current level of greenhouse gas emissions. It warns that the effects will cascade through globalized social and economic systems, potentially exceeding the ability of some countries to adapt. Tipping points can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of ecosystems, disruptions to staple crop growth, mass displacement, political instability, and financial collapse.
The report calls for bold, coordinated policies across multiple sectors, including energy, transport, and food, to avoid the disastrous trajectory. It emphasizes the need to phase out fossil fuels and land-use emissions before 2050, strengthen adaptation and loss and damage governance, and address the inequality of impacts across the globe. Additionally, the report suggests including tipping points in the Global Stocktake at COP28. Lead author Tim Lenton, a professor at Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, highlights the urgency of triggering positive tipping points to ensure societal and economic survival.
The findings underscore the critical importance of transformative action to avert the impending crisis and the need for equitable global governance to drive positive change. The report serves as a stark reminder of the urgency to address climate change and implement measures to mitigate its impacts.