Nepal is grappling with an alarming increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, with nearly 5,000 incidents recorded this year alone. This makes 2024 the second-worst year for wildfires since records began in 2002, surpassed only by the devastating fire season of 2021, which saw over 6,300 outbreaks. In the past 12 months, more than 100 people have lost their lives due to wildfires, and the capital city, Kathmandu, was shrouded in hazardous wildfire smog for days on end.
Climate models predict that Nepal will continue to experience more frequent drought conditions in the future, likely exacerbating the wildfire situation. However, forest scientists suggest that the increasing incidence of wildfires is not solely due to climate change. They point to changes in Nepalese communities’ relationship with forests as a significant contributing factor.
In the early 1970s, Nepal’s rural population grew rapidly, and the country’s heavy reliance on agriculture took a toll on its forests. Vast areas of trees were cleared for firewood, fodder, and timber. A 1979 World Bank report warned of an impending “ecological disaster,” prompting the government to launch a large-scale tree-planting program and decentralize forest management, granting locals control over nearly 1.8 million hectares of wooded land. This initiative almost doubled Nepal’s forest cover over three decades, reaching 45% in 2016.
However, Nepal’s socio-political landscape underwent significant changes during this period. The abolition of the monarchy in late 2008 and the transition to a federal system in 2015 led to a shift in priorities. “The new political atmosphere didn’t prioritize the management of community forests like before,” says Uttam Babu Shrestha, an environmental scientist at the Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies in Kathmandu. Many community forests are still governed by outdated rules that prohibit the cutting of timber, further complicating forest management.
Additionally, migration away from rural areas has left many forests neglected. A 2022 study by Sarada Tiwari, then a researcher for ForestAction Nepal in Patan, found that over 33% of locals who relied on forests had left the country, and 63% of rural households had at least one member leave the village. With fewer people depending on forests for their livelihoods, the sense of ownership and responsibility for forest management has diminished. This neglect has led to the accumulation of forest litter, providing fuel for wildfires. Shrestha notes that even when community-managed forests catch fire, locals often do not feel compelled to intervene.
In 2021, climate scientist Binod Pokharel from Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, analyzed factors contributing to the severe wildfires that year. He found that high drought indices, calculated using trends in temperature, humidity, and wind speed, were often associated with a high number of wildfires in the following weeks. While climate conditions play a role in the spread of wildfires, Pokharel emphasizes that their origin is mainly anthropogenic. He suggests that better informing community forest groups about the risk of forest fires in advance could significantly reduce their occurrence.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), an intergovernmental research institute based in Lalitpur, has developed a wildfire-monitoring portal that provides a two-day forest fire outlook based on weather data. Sudip Pradhan, a geospatial scientist at ICIMOD, notes that most villages in Nepal have access to the Internet and smartphones, enabling the deployment of mobile applications for real-time fire monitoring.
Pokharel and his team also found that locals would be better prepared to manage fires if they received warnings at least a month in advance and were equipped with tools such as fire trucks. While the efforts of organizations like ICIMOD are invaluable, Pokharel stresses the need for greater government involvement in fire management. He advocates for leveraging the existing community forest stewardship model and improved forecasting to enhance fire preparedness.
Without such measures, the increasing forest cover, if not properly managed, could lead to further disasters. The situation in Nepal underscores the urgent need for a multifaceted approach to wildfire management, integrating both technological advancements and community engagement to mitigate the devastating impact of wildfires.
Reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01758-2