April 15 – Europe has made more progress in adapting to cold weather than to heatwaves over the last two decades, according to a new study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), in collaboration with the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre. The research published in The Lancet Planetary Health analyzed data from over 800 regions in 35 countries across Europe between 2003 and 2020.
The findings reveal that the risk of death from cold temperatures dropped by 2% per year, while deaths linked to extreme heat also declined, but only by 1% annually. This suggests that while Europeans are increasingly resilient to cold the response to rising heat threats remains slower and less effective.
To reflect the diverse climate and vulnerability across Europe, researchers introduced a new metric called Extreme-Risk Temperature (ERT). Unlike previous models that used fixed thresholds, this approach accounts for regional differences in sensitivity to temperature. Using this method scientists found that Europe now sees 2.07 fewer dangerously cold days per year, but 0.28 more dangerously hot days annually.
Southern and Southeastern European regions stood out as more vulnerable facing a higher number of extreme-temperature days and a greater associated mortality risk. These areas are disproportionately affected due to weaker housing insulation, limited healthcare resources and lower access to social support, especially among vulnerable groups.
Zhao-Yue Chen “We’ve become better at coping with cold a process called adaptation But when it comes to extreme heat, the improvements have been slower and uneven.”
Only 20 out of 38 European countries currently have a temperature surveillance system, and 17 still lack heat-health action plans (HHAPs). Senior researcher Joan Ballester Claramunt stressed that Europe must urgently scale up heat preparedness, especially as climate change continues to intensify.
The study also looked at the compounding effects of pollution and extreme temperatures. On average, 60% of dangerously hot days and 65% of dangerously cold days coincided with high pollution levels, particularly ozone (O₃). Worryingly, heat and ozone compound days are increasing, rising by 0.26 days per year.
These compound events pose an amplified risk to public health, said Chen. We need to address heat and air pollution together, especially secondary pollutants like ozone which are becoming more common in a warming world.
The study underscores a clear call for stronger, region-specific policies to protect people from the growing threats of extreme weather and pollution and a reminder that climate resilience is not one-size-fits-all.