A recent study has identified the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a significant contributor to the rising frequency and intensity of heat waves in southwest India. ENSO, characterized by periodic warming and cooling of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure shifts in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, is now recognized as a major player in exacerbating heat conditions in the region.
The research highlights that while ENSO is a key factor, other major climatic patterns also play roles in influencing the heat waves affecting southwest India. This finding comes amid a troubling trend of increasingly severe heat waves not only in South Asia but globally.
Historical Context and Recent Trends
The study is set against a backdrop of heightened concern over climate change’s impact on heat waves. The Indian subcontinent has witnessed 223 heat wave events between 1978 and 1999, resulting in approximately 5,500 deaths. In 2024 alone, India experienced about 24 days of heat waves, marking its longest continuous period of extreme heat.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), confirmed that the country is facing its third consecutive year of severe heat waves. Another study has noted that milder heat waves between 2008 and 2019 caused more fatalities than initially thought, underscoring the increasing health risks associated with heat extremes.
Study Insights and Future Projections
Vijayakumar P, an assistant professor at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Kerala, who was not involved in the study, summarized the findings: “Through regression methods and climate perturbation and causality analysis using reliable climate data sets, the study elucidates the relative impacts of the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans on heat wave conditions in the region during peak summer months.”
The study suggests that ongoing global warming will likely lead to more frequent and intense heat wave events in southwest India. This trend is expected to pose significant challenges for the ecosystem-rich region, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.
Implications for Policy and Preparedness
The study’s findings highlight the need for enhanced climate monitoring and preparedness strategies to address the impacts of ENSO and other climatic factors on heat waves. As global temperatures continue to rise, understanding the interplay between different climatic systems and their influence on regional weather patterns will be crucial for developing effective adaptation measures.
With the increasing frequency and severity of heat waves, it is imperative for policymakers, researchers, and public health officials to collaborate in mitigating the impacts of extreme heat and safeguarding vulnerable populations in southwest India and beyond.