Wildfires fueled by climate change are becoming a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, forcing scientists and policymakers to rethink how these emissions are accounted for in global inventories. Minal Pathak, an associate professor at the Global Centre for Environment and Energy at Ahmedabad University and a contributing author of the United Nations Emissions Gap Report, discusses the challenges of including wildfire emissions in global emission estimates and the broader implications for climate policy.
The recent wildfires in California have once again underscored the devastating effects of climate-induced disasters. The Palisades and Eaton fires, which ignited on January 7, 2025, burned over 23,000 and 14,000 acres, respectively. By January 23, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported the fires were 70% and 95% contained. However, new fires the Hughes, Sepulveda, and Clay fires broke out on January 22, 21, and 23, burning over 10,000, 40, and 39 acres, respectively. Containment efforts have been slow, with Hughes fire at 14%, Sepulveda fire at 0%, and Clay fire at 65% containment. Preliminary estimates indicate 28 fatalities and the destruction of over 15,000 structures.
For the first time, the UN Emissions Gap Report has included wildfire emissions in its estimates, recognizing their growing contribution to global emissions. Pathak explains that wildfires are categorized as either natural or anthropogenic, with the latter being deliberately set for agricultural or livestock purposes. Some global databases already account for anthropogenic fires, as they directly alter land use and release CO₂, methane, nitrous oxide, and other pollutants.
While CO₂ from wildfires is often considered “carbon neutral” since forests are expected to regrow over time this assumption is being increasingly challenged as fires become more intense and recovery times extend. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from wildfires have significant climate impacts and are not offset in the same way.
Wildfires induced by climate change present a major accounting dilemma. While fires in Canada and California in 2023 and 2024 were classified as natural since they were not deliberately ignited climatic conditions played a significant role in their outbreak. Currently, these emissions are not included in greenhouse gas inventories, making it difficult to fully assess their impact on climate change.
Challenges in Accounting for Wildfire Emissions
Pathak outlines several challenges in incorporating wildfire emissions into inventories:
- Temporal Displacement: When trees burn, they release CO₂ immediately, but reabsorption takes years or even decades. Climate change affects forest regrowth, making long-term carbon storage unpredictable.
- Double Counting Risks: Emissions from wildfires in tropical regions might overlap with deforestation data, leading to inaccurate emissions estimates. Similarly, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from crop burning should not be counted twice.
- Global vs. National Discrepancies: Countries report emissions differently, making national inventories less consistent than global databases. With increasing wildfire activity, the stability of carbon sinks is also uncertain.
Growing Recognition of Wildfire Emissions in Inventories
Pathak believes that as wildfires become more frequent and intense, emissions inventories will evolve. Some countries, such as India, are already incorporating wildfire emissions into their reports. India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2024 included forest fire emissions, using methodologies from the Forest Survey of India. The report found rising methane and nitrogen oxide emissions from wildfires, underscoring the importance of improving emissions accounting.
Data Sources for Emissions Gap Report
The Emissions Gap Report does not rely on national inventories but instead uses global datasets such as:
EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research)
Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), which tracks fire emissions using satellite data
Global Carbon Budget, which quantifies CO₂ emissions and removals by land and oceans
GFED’s latest dataset (GFED4s) includes small fire burned areas from 2017 onward but has uncertainties in extrapolating long-term trends. EDGAR accounts for emissions from boreal, temperate, and peatland fires, but its estimates remain limited. The challenge is to differentiate between direct anthropogenic fires and those influenced by climate change.
Will UNEP Include Climate-Linked Wildfires in Future Reports?
Pathak notes that UNEP is actively exploring methodologies to include wildfire emissions linked to climate change. However, without a clear framework to attribute these emissions to human-induced climate change, incorporating them into emissions inventories remains difficult. Short-term accounting could also lead to significant overestimations if single events cause massive emissions spikes. Nonetheless, improvements in transparency and methodology are expected in future reports.
The Urgency of Wildfire Mitigation and Preparedness
With wildfire incidents rising, Pathak stresses the need for stronger data collection and scientific research. Improved transparency in estimating carbon pools, including soil carbon and biomass, is crucial. In many countries, including India, national institutions lack adequate capacity to measure and respond to wildfires.
She also highlights the importance of wildfire management, citing Los Angeles as an example of a city forced to divert all resources to fire control. In India, similar questions arise do we have enough water resources, trained personnel, and early warning systems? Wildfires are still not a priority in India’s climate policy, but as they escalate, better preparedness and policy integration will be essential.
Conclusion
Wildfires, once considered natural occurrences, are increasingly being linked to human-driven climate change. As these fires release vast amounts of greenhouse gases, their inclusion in emissions accounting will become critical. Pathak and other experts stress the need for improved methodologies, data accuracy, and policy attention to ensure that wildfire emissions are adequately measured and managed. The evolving science behind wildfire accounting will play a key role in shaping future climate strategies and emissions reduction targets.