Sea surface temperatures are nearing record breaking levels globally, raising concerns about stronger storms, coastal flooding and marine ecosystem disruption in Türkiye, according to climate experts.
Speaking on recent climate trends, Cem Gazioğlu, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences and Management at Istanbul University, warned that warming oceans are intensifying the interaction between the atmosphere and seas, increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events across the region.
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average air temperature in April 2026 reached 14.89 degrees Celsius, making it the third hottest April ever recorded. Sea surface temperatures outside polar regions climbed to nearly 21 degrees Celsius, the second highest level on record, while Arctic sea ice coverage dropped to its second-lowest April level.
Oceans Now Driving Climate Extremes
Gazioğlu said climate systems can no longer be understood only through atmospheric temperatures, as oceans now play a central role in shaping weather patterns worldwide.
“The climate system has evolved into a complex structure that must be evaluated together with ocean heat storage, marine heat waves, cryosphere melting and atmospheric circulation anomalies,” he explained.
Scientists say rising sea temperatures increase the amount of heat stored in upper ocean layers, allowing the atmosphere to absorb more moisture. This process can intensify storms, extreme rainfall, prolonged heatwaves and drought conditions.
Gazioğlu warned that if El Niño conditions develop later in 2026, new sea surface temperature records could be set globally.
“As a result, marine biological stress events could intensify, while the risks of coastal flooding and storm surges may increase,” he said.
Mediterranean and Black Sea Facing Growing Risks
The effects of warming oceans are already becoming increasingly visible across Türkiye, particularly along the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts.
According to Gazioğlu, prolonged sea temperature anomalies are altering marine ecosystems, shifting species distribution and accelerating the spread of invasive marine species.
He also pointed to severe floods and landslides in the Black Sea region as evidence of changing atmospheric moisture systems affecting regional hydrology.
The expert highlighted the growing mucilage problem in the Marmara Sea, linking it to seawater temperature anomalies, stagnant conditions and rising nutrient pollution.
Meanwhile, intense rainfall events around Istanbul are contributing to more frequent urban flooding, while central and southeastern regions of the country are experiencing worsening drought conditions.
Eastern Mediterranean Identified as Climate Hot Spot
Describing the Eastern Mediterranean as a global “climate change hot spot,” Gazioğlu warned that warmer seas could increase the likelihood of powerful Mediterranean cyclones, also known as medicanes.
He stressed the need for continuous, high Resolution climate monitoring systems, saying traditional marine observations conducted only once or twice a year are no longer sufficient.
“Operational oceanography-based continuous observation infrastructures have now become a strategic necessity,” he said.
Climate experts say the combination of warming seas, changing rainfall patterns and rising atmospheric instability could place Türkiye under multiple climate-related risks simultaneously in the coming years.