Global warming has entered a faster phase since around 2015, according to a new study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The study found that after accounting for natural climate influences such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity, Earth’s long-term warming rate has accelerated significantly.
Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the analysis examined five major global temperature datasets, including those from NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, HadCRUT and ERA5. Researchers found that the planet has warmed at an average rate of about 0.35°C per decade over the past 10 years, compared to just under 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015.
The researchers said the acceleration became noticeable around 2013–2015 and was consistent across all five datasets, with more than 98% statistical certainty. They used two independent statistical methods to confirm that the increase in the warming rate was not due to random variation.
The study also found that even after removing the effects of El Niño and the recent solar maximum, 2023 and 2024 remained the warmest years since global temperature records began in 1880.
Lead author Stefan Rahmstorf said the research identifies the acceleration in warming but does not determine its exact cause. However, the findings are consistent with climate model projections that show periods of faster warming can occur as greenhouse gas concentrations increase.
Researchers warned that if the current warming rate continues, the world could exceed the Paris Agreement’s long-term 1.5°C warming threshold before 2030. They noted that future warming will largely depend on how quickly global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are reduced.
The study highlights growing concerns that climate change is progressing faster than previously observed, reinforcing the need for rapid emissions cuts and stronger climate action worldwide.