A new study warns that global sea levels could rise as much as 1.9 meters by 2100 if carbon emissions remain unchecked 90 centimeters higher than the latest estimates by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The research, conducted by scientists at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore and Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) in the Netherlands, introduces a more accurate projection method that accounts for extreme climate scenarios.
Published in Earth Future, the study highlights that traditional sea-level rise estimates vary widely due to uncertainties in climate models. While most models include well-understood factors like glacier melt, they struggle to predict less certain events such as sudden ice shelf collapse. To address this, the researchers developed a new “fusion” approach that combines data from multiple models with expert opinions, offering a more reliable range of possible sea-level rise outcomes.
Their findings suggest that under a low-emissions scenario, sea levels could rise between 0.3 and 1.0 meters by 2100. However, under a high-emissions pathway, sea levels may increase by 0.5 to 1.9 meters nearly double previous estimates. The study stresses that these extreme outcomes would have devastating consequences for coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems, making climate mitigation efforts more urgent than ever.
Beyond sea-level projections, the new method can be applied to assessing coastal flooding risks, analyzing infrastructure vulnerabilities, and predicting economic impacts. Researchers emphasize that governments and urban planners must use these updated projections to prepare for worst-case scenarios and take immediate action to curb emissions.