Somalia has taken a crucial step toward tackling the looming threat of drought and extreme heat by hosting its Sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6) in Mogadishu on March 4–5. The gathering brought together climate experts, government officials, and humanitarian agencies to assess the anticipated climate conditions for the Gu season (March-May 2025) and devise urgent mitigation strategies to protect communities from severe environmental challenges.
The forum, organized by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC) with technical support from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), delivered a stark warning about the season ahead. Climate projections indicate below-average rainfall and soaring temperatures, with the highest probability of drought conditions expected in regions like Gedo, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Bay, and parts of Galguduud and Mudug. The rising heat, with a more than 60% probability of exceeding normal levels, is predicted to hit Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland, and Somaliland, raising serious concerns over food security, water shortages, and the survival of livestock.
As experts analyzed the devastating effects of the previous Deyr season (October-December 2024), discussions at the forum emphasized the need for urgent action. Many communities are already grappling with the impact of prolonged dry spells, which have worsened drought conditions, displaced families, and increased humanitarian needs. The government and development agencies highlighted the importance of early warning systems, climate-resilient agricultural practices, and improved health preparedness to address the mounting risks. Without swift intervention, the country could see a rise in heat-related illnesses, waterborne diseases, and economic hardship for millions.
The discussions underscored the role of humanitarian organizations and NGOs in ensuring timely assistance, particularly in the most affected regions. Experts also called for stronger stakeholder collaboration between government agencies, local communities, and international partners to enhance climate adaptation efforts.
The event was made possible through financial and technical support from the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Horn of Africa project, which has been instrumental in advancing climate services and disaster preparedness in the region. With Somalia bracing for a difficult Gu season, the forum served as a reminder that proactive measures and coordinated efforts are the only way to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and protect the country’s vulnerable populations from escalating environmental crises.