A groundbreaking study published in Nature Communications reveals how communities can anticipate extreme weather events that have never been recorded in modern history. Researchers from the Climate Adaptation Services Foundation the University of Reading, and international institutions have developed new techniques that go beyond conventional weather records, which typically span only the last century.
The study highlights how nature’s archives such as tree rings combined with forgotten historical documents can unlock centuries of missing climate data. Lead author Timo Kelder “We’ve been limited by thinking extreme weather is only as bad as what we’ve measured since weather stations were invented, But our research shows we can use weather models to look back hundreds or even thousands of years to discover what’s truly possible in our climate system.”
Reconstructing the Past to Predict the Future
The team identified four key approaches that create a more complete picture of extreme weather risks:
- Analysing conventional records
- Studying historical and natural archives (e.g., tree rings)
- Developing “what-if” scenarios based on past events
- Using climate models to simulate extreme but physically possible weather
Tree rings proved especially valuable allowing researchers to reconstruct 850 years of drought patterns in northwestern China. This revealed extreme dry periods that would be invisible in modern records. Similarly historical documents uncovered forgotten climate extremes, such as an exceptionally hot June in Durham, UK, in 1846 and record-breaking rainfall in Oxford in September 1774 both more severe than anything measured in the last 250 years.
The study stresses that expanding climate forecasting beyond modern records is crucial for building resilience against extreme weather. It calls for stronger early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and transformative social policies to reduce vulnerability.
“Unprecedented weather doesn’t just break records it breaks communities, infrastructure, and lives,” said co-author Dorothy Heinrich from the University of Reading. “Science can help us imagine the unimaginable, uncover these risks, and prepare. Our future depends on how quickly and thoroughly we adapt today.”