A new report by the United Nations warns that global emissions are predicted to decrease by only 2 percent below 2019 levels by 2030, significantly below the required 43 percent reduction to avert the worst impacts of climate change. The report comes ahead of the 28th UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, where countries are expected to push for stronger climate action to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 is crucial to limit temperature rise and avoid severe climate impacts such as droughts, heatwaves, and rainfall extremes. The report analyzed the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of 195 countries to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until September 25.
Climate Changes including worst impacts
Despite emissions no longer increasing after 2030, the report highlights that they are not declining rapidly enough, as per scientific recommendations. If the latest NDCs are implemented, current commitments will still increase emissions by approximately 8.8 percent compared to 2010 levels. Although this is a slight improvement from last year’s assessment, which predicted a 10.6 percent increase by 2030, urgent action is still needed.
The report emphasizes that global emissions are projected to be only 2 percent below 2019 levels by 2030, indicating that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade. To achieve this peak, the report states that the conditional elements of the NDCs, which depend on enhanced financial resources, technology transfer, and capacity-building support, need to be implemented.
COP28 President Designate Sultan Al Jaber stressed the need for greater ambition and urgency, calling COP28 a historic turning point. Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive-Secretary, emphasized that COP28 must be a clear turning point where governments not only agree on stronger climate actions but also demonstrate how to deliver them.
The Global Stocktake, initiated in 2021, will conclude at COP28, providing a crucial review of collective global progress and informing the next round of climate action plans under the Paris Agreement. The report underscores the importance of accelerated action to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and address the pressing challenges posed by climate change.