Baku, Azerbaijan – The world is on track to mark 2024 as the first full year of 1.5°C global warming above pre-industrial levels, according to data presented at the United Nations’ COP29 climate summit. Recent analyses from Copernicus, Berkeley Earth, and the UK Met Office underscore this troubling milestone, with average temperatures this year setting new records and surpassing last year’s high of 0.6°C above the 1991-2020 average.
Despite the recent El Niño event contributing to temperature increases earlier this year, the excessive heat has endured well after its dissipation. This persistence signals a new climate reality, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning of increasing natural disasters as a direct result of fossil fuel emissions.
“Record-breaking rainfall, intense tropical storms, deadly heatwaves, and raging wildfires have become our new normal,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. These escalating weather extremes have already led to severe consequences worldwide, including devastating floods in Valencia, hurricanes hitting the U.S., wildfires in Peru, and significant crop loss in Bangladesh, which has led to a sharp rise in rice prices.
A Climate System at Its Tipping Point
Experts fear the cumulative energy trapped in our atmosphere may soon tip critical climate systems, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Amazon rainforest, and polar ice sheets, beyond recovery. Mark Howden, a climate scientist from Australian National University, expressed concern that we are rapidly moving toward a future where 3°C warming becomes a reality unless emissions are drastically cut. “At 1.25°C, we’re already seeing major impacts globally. Moving towards 2.5–3°C would have catastrophic consequences, far outweighing the costs of reducing emissions now,” Howden stated.
While this year may breach the 1.5°C mark, WMO clarifies that this doesn’t mean the Paris Agreement goal has been permanently surpassed, as its targets are based on longer-term averages. Still, scientists and policymakers emphasize the importance of every fraction of a degree in limiting future impacts. “Every additional increment of warming intensifies climate extremes, impacts, and risks,” Saulo highlighted.
COP29: Climate Summit Amid Controversy
Azerbaijan, the host of COP29, has come under scrutiny for pursuing fossil fuel deals during the summit, a move that has raised skepticism about the effectiveness of climate negotiations in tackling global warming. Critics argue that such actions only accelerate the climate emergency. “An agreement that allows a problem to grow into a crisis isn’t truly effective,” said Durwood Zaelke, cofounder of the Center for International Environmental Law.
Despite these challenges, experts urge continued action to curb emissions. “Every step to reduce warming will save lives,” emphasized Saulo, underscoring that reducing emissions remains paramount to mitigating climate impacts, no matter where global temperatures currently stand.
Reference: https://www.sciencealert.com/2024-predicted-to-be-first-full-year-above-1-5c-of-global-warming