A new scientific study has raised concerns that climate change may be progressing faster than previously estimated, potentially bringing key global warming thresholds closer than expected. Researchers argue that the rate of human driven warming has accelerated significantly over the past decade although some climate scientists remain cautious about the conclusion.
Published in March 2026 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters study by climate researchers Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf found that global temperatures have been rising at approximately 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade since 2015. This is substantially higher than the long term warming rate of about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade observed since the 1970s.
According to the authors, this represents the fastest decadal warming rate since modern temperature records began in 1880. If this pace continues, the world could cross the long-term 1.5°C warming threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement around 2030, several years earlier than many projections had suggested.
The researchers reached their conclusion by removing short term climate influences such as El Niño, La Niña, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles from global temperature records. After filtering out these natural fluctuations, they found evidence of a statistically significant acceleration in warming beginning around 2015.
However, not all experts agree. Climate scientist Michael E. Mann argues that there is currently no clear evidence of an accelerating long term warming trend. He suggests that recent record breaking temperatures are largely the result of declining industrial aerosol pollution, particularly sulfur emissions, which previously masked some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.
One major factor cited is the 2020 regulation by the International Maritime Organization that drastically reduced sulfur content in marine fuels. The resulting decline in sulfate aerosols reduced a cooling effect that had reflected sunlight back into space, potentially revealing additional warming already present in the climate system.
The debate intensified following the extraordinary global temperatures recorded in 2023. Global average temperatures reached approximately 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding what many scientists expected from greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño conditions alone.
Researchers have also pointed to a decline in Earth’s planetary albedo the amount of sunlight reflected back into space as a possible contributor. Reduced cloud cover in some regions may have allowed more solar energy to be absorbed by the planet, although scientists are still investigating the causes.
While the scientific community continues to evaluate whether warming is truly accelerating, there is broad agreement on one point: global temperatures will continue rising until net greenhouse gas emissions reach zero.
Climate experts say the next few years will be crucial. Temperature records for 2026 and 2027, now that the recent El Niño event has faded, could provide stronger evidence about whether the recent surge in warming reflects a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a faster long-term trend.
For now, scientists agree that global warming is continuing at least as quickly as expected and potentially faster highlighting the urgency of reducing emissions and strengthening climate action worldwide.