New modelling of 3,735 future scenarios shows that lower income populations could face far greater resource pressures than wealthier groups, with food costs potentially consuming nearly half of income in parts of Africa.
Global access to food, water and energy could become increasingly unequal by 2050, with lower income populations in several regions facing substantially greater resource insecurity than wealthier groups, according to a new study involving researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
The study published in Earth’s Future examined 3,735 scenarios to assess how economic conditions, climate change, agriculture, land use, trade, energy systems, water availability and income distribution could shape future resource security.
Researchers found that the risks could vary significantly not only between regions but also among income groups within the same region. In some parts of the world, the poorest populations could spend around half of their income on food by 2050, while the wealthiest groups could spend only a small fraction.
Poorer populations face higher food burden
The sharpest disparities were projected in Africa. In southern Africa, the lowest income 10 per cent of the population could spend about 49.6 per cent of their income on food in 2050, compared with around 5.5 per cent for the wealthiest 10 per cent.
In West Africa the projected food burden for the lowest income group was about 48.4 per cent, while in East Africa it was approximately 42.5 per cent.
The researchers also compared the projections with 2015 conditions. In western Africa, the lowest-income group had an average food burden of about 25 per cent in 2015, while future scenarios for 2050 ranged from roughly 20 per cent to 75 per cent. In southern Africa, the corresponding burden could rise from around 20 per cent in 2015 to between 25 per cent and 65 per cent by 2050, depending on future conditions.
Jennifer Morris, principal research scientist at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy and MIT Energy Initiative, said that when essential food costs consume half of a person’s income little remains for other basic needs.
Energy insecurity also shows income divide
The study found similar disparities in household energy burdens.
In parts of the Middle East, residential energy costs in 2050 were projected at about 18.9 per cent of income for the lowest income group compared with just 1.7 per cent for the highest income group.
In Eastern Europe, the energy burden for the lowest income population could reach approximately 11.3 per cent of income, while remaining below 5 per cent for the highest income group.
The findings indicate that national or regional averages could obscure severe vulnerabilities experienced by poorer sections of society.
Multiple factors shape future insecurity
The researchers used the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) version 7.1 which represents interactions between energy, economies, water, land and climate. The model divides the world into 32 regions, 235 water basins and 384 land-use regions.
Twelve major variables were incorporated into the modelling, including population, GDP, income distribution, carbon intensity, land use, agricultural trade, energy consumption and water use.
The study suggests that there is no single factor responsible for future food, water and energy insecurity. Regional economic conditions, land and water availability, energy systems, agricultural production, trade and consumer behaviour can interact to create different levels of vulnerability.
Gi Joo Kim, a research scientist at Tulane University and co-author of the study, said the findings demonstrate why policymakers need to examine the particular combination of factors creating vulnerability in each region rather than relying solely on broad averages.
Sub-Saharan Africa among key areas of concern
The modelling indicates that food insecurity could become particularly acute in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, while energy insecurity could be a major concern for lower-income populations in parts of Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
The researchers stressed that the study is not intended to predict a single most likely future. Instead, it explores a wide range of possible outcomes and identifies the conditions that could produce different levels of resource security.
The approach is intended to help policymakers identify vulnerable populations and develop region specific strategies for strengthening access to essential resources.
Policy needs to focus on inequality
The study highlights the importance of looking beyond overall regional resource availability. A region may appear relatively secure when measured through averages while poorer households face severe difficulties accessing food, water or energy.
Researchers say the scenario based approach can help policymakers understand how economic and environmental changes could affect different sections of society and where interventions may be most urgently required.
The findings underline a broader challenge for sustainable development ensuring that improvements in global resource availability translate into affordable and reliable access for vulnerable populations.
Rather than assuming a uniform global pathway to resource security, the researchers argue that future policies will need to account for differences in income, geography, climate, land use, infrastructure and consumption patterns.