Nigeria has improved its ability to forecast floods, but many vulnerable households still struggle to turn warnings into timely protective action. A new analysis focusing on Kogi State highlights the “last-mile” gap between receiving a flood warning and having the resources and support needed to respond.
In 2026, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) identified more than 14,000 communities across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory as being at risk of flooding. In Kogi State, 10 local government areas were placed on high alert.
The Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet), NIHSA, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and state authorities have strengthened coordination and forecasting. However, warnings alone cannot protect families that lack the money, transport, infrastructure or clear plans needed to evacuate or protect their belongings.
Anticipatory Cash Helps Families Act Before Floods
Research on last mile communities in Kogi State found that many households receive flood information through radio, social media and trusted community leaders. Awareness of flood risks can be high, but precautionary action remains limited.
Riverine communities face additional challenges. Rising water can cut roads, isolate villages and disrupt mobile networks, making it harder for residents to access assistance when they need it most.
The situation has shown that early warning systems need to be connected directly to early action. In parts of Kogi State, anticipatory cash transfers linked to flood forecasts provided households with around US$105 before peak flooding.
The assistance was delivered through simple USSD technology that works on basic mobile phones. Families used the money according to their individual needs. Some moved belongings to safer locations, while others built bamboo rafts to protect farm produce or move family members to safer buildings.
Because the assistance arrived before flooding peaked households were able to prepare rather than wait until losses had already occurred.
The approach reportedly contributed to lower food insecurity faster income recovery and greater confidence among families in preparing for future floods.
The model reflects the fourth pillar of the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All initiative, which focuses on ensuring communities have the resources and capacity to act on warnings before disasters occur.
To close Nigeria’s last mile gap, experts recommend delivering localised warnings through trusted communication channels, connecting forecasts with anticipatory financial support, combining scientific forecasts with local knowledge and establishing clear evacuation plans.
For high risk communities, state governments could consider expanding anticipatory cash programmes linked to localised flood forecasts during the 2027 budget cycle. Such investments could help reduce loss of life and livelihoods while also lowering the cost of repeated post disaster relief and recovery.
The experience in Kogi highlights a fundamental principle of disaster preparedness: a forecast can tell people that floodwaters are coming, but an effective early-warning system must also give families the means to act before those waters arrive.